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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick Storm who wrote (28417)	9/21/2001 6:39:46 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Rick, these very extreme readings typically occur during or on the onset of a recession (depending how prolonged such a recession is) and typically a good 6 months before a recession ends. My original scenario did not call for a recession this year, but with the 9/11 event, we are going to take out over the next two quarters a slice of $100 to $120 B from the economy, it will be poured back in with the strong combination of fiscal and monetary stimulation, even the superhawk on the budget, McCain came on and said, right now it is a good time to pour money in the economy to avert a or moderate a recession. I think that this Q and next will be negative growth GDP, lasting possibly through the first Q next year (will depend a lot on how well we are doing with our war on terrorism, few visible successes will go a long way to restore confidence). My target for early next year is 2250 on the Naz, a solid 60% from the recent lows, and we could continue over then next three months (to April/July next year) to just under 2800. I'll have to refine these numbers later, but that is what the new turnips forecast is, assuming that we have indeed seen the bottom. A very bad event during the weekend, and we are cooked with a black Monday, and all bets are off again, while this is not expected, I did not expect Sep. 11th, 2001 either. Zeev