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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (52854)	9/21/2001 5:54:30 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, please check the PASTE feature on your PC as it is obviously broken. You pasted "TSMC says operating income will exceed expectations". Gottfried At the noon hour customer traffic in Fry's, Sunnyvale, CA was normal and the same at nearby Costco. We're buying again.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (52854)	9/22/2001 3:39:23 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 70976

Hi Brian, Please quit spamming the thread with positive information.I much more comfortable with going along with the trend. 8235.81/1369.69=six more weeks and the Dow will hit zero. Your confusing post of a business pickup is really making my world difficult - STOP IT !! <smile> It is interesting that they see a pickup in the smaller micron higher difficult IC's.This is afterall what Morgan's been preaching for years. If you want to play - you've got to pay. For those who don't pay, they are left fighting out marketshare in the commoditised product lines.This to me is the long slow death that drags companies into little publicised mergers. In particular,I've noticed this in the testhandler segment,Cohu with their affiliation with Intel developed "pick and place testhandlers". This developement left gravity feed testhandlers to die the slow death and merge - MCTI bought the cashless Aseco.Both MCTI and ATRM missed the bull run of 2000 and are just slowly declining. Technology enhancements continually redefine the leaders.These cycle troughs actually have a great benefit to the leading well capitalized SCE companies.It is during cycle peaks that that production demands the focus of all efforts.It is during the cycle troughs that R&D determines the future high growth companies ,who will ultimately grab market share,profit share,and amass the financial strength that will ensure the staying power during the next downturn as well as provide the best R&D results. This is why I'm utilizing this final leg of the bottoming process, to buy the bluechip 800 pound Gorillas. Friday I bought Intel for $1.85 below what I sold some of my treasured Cohu for, the month before.A month ago I sold out my Nvls for 20 points over what AMAT can be purchased for now.Unbelievable how fast value can occur. I remember in 98 I marveled at the same relationship - unfortunately I hadn't sold and was under margin pressure- so I could only watch. This cycle I've been fortunate to have just a little bit of dry powder to apply in this upgrade swap.I hope next time, I get more patient and am able to do this to greater degree. Oh heck, a guy has to have a dream.gg I've played Nvls several times this year, and am thinking Amat is the better vehicle for a long term play.Earlier this year I was convinced that Nvls was gaining market share in their copper connect business.Lately I'm more inclined to think that Amat was gaining share with their modular processes approach. This concept may well revolutionize the future fabs to a degree where even if you have "best of class" individual equipment you may well be engineered out of consideration as a result of software incapatibility. Amat may well be pulling off a microsoft play within the semi-equip sector? Future consolidation into an Intel like giant may well be Amat's acquisition plan during the next cycle trough. That being the case it is time to get with the Gorillas. Would like your thoughts on that. Thanks for the rare good news.Just a few revelations that chips are being used every day,and the inventory overhang has been worked thru will give us a huge percentage pop up. I'm afraid much of the pent up short covering was easily accomplished in last week's record volume on both the nyse and nasdaq.Hard to read ,in that 4 days of trading where compressed into the last week of expiry. On the plus side bearish views finally inverted over bullish views - a sure sign the bottom is close. The masses are always wrong. Thanks again for the nice post. Bob