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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (124797)	9/21/2001 6:46:39 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

heinz, wait until the 401k qrtly statements come out...

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (124797)	9/21/2001 10:46:49 PM
From: Eva	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

..... Message 16396205

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (124797)	9/22/2001 12:54:55 PM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz Its looking more and more that we are now headed for hard landing (S&P500 at around 600 range by my definition). Many folks may find it hard to believe that there can be a further 33% haircut in their portfolio. I was kind of hoping that we end up in the soft landing scenario, that is, S&P 500 bottoms at about 950 or so and consolidates there for a few years but I think the 950 level is coming about 3 months too early and with a huge loss of consumer confidence. I think we are entering what I call as Synchronous Massive Puking (SMP) event, where the money managers have started puking first and will pass on the batton to the retail when S&P drops another 150 points or so. It is also clear from the charts that the managers have started selling all types of stocks realizing that there is no safe heaven anywhere, I see Red on small cap growth/value, and large cap growth/value starting this week as well as real estate and all foreign indices. The small cap value going Red is a signal people getting out of equities in hoards. If the SMP starts resonating next few weeks could be very crucial, else it seems that we will possibly see S&P around 600 in next 3 Quarters. Actually Greenspan seemed to do quite alright (although I doubted the possibility at succeeding at it) in cutting rates and pumping liquidity into the market to hold it around 1100 and possibly would have continued to do it for another 3 months or so when the rate cut effects would start surfacing to hold the downdraft to a soft landing; he was able to somehow hold people from getting into SMP event. However, the WTC incident has been instrumental in killing his strategy and I doubt it will work in future once the SMP event has started. If nothing else, Japan's example shows us how long it takes for a hardened bull market to hit its first major low, which is about 2.5 years from the peak (Peak in Jan 90 to first major tradable low in Summer of 1992), there are not many reasons for folks to buy stocks until about Summer of 2002 (Nasdaq peak in March 2000, take 2 years from that), in that time, either we go there decaying slowly with Fed pumping liquidity or go there rapidly in the next few weeks, looks like go there, we will. Sorry about sounding pessimistic, but that is how I am reading things at the moment and I wished they were a different. What do you think? Regards Hemant