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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (28429)	9/21/2001 7:48:49 PM
From: pompsander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Following Jay's question: Zeev, you had worried that the added liquidity and stimulation from the Fed and other world banks could upset the applecart big time after the 2002 runup. Does the massive pump-priming now being done strengthen or lessen your earlier concerns? Frankly, unless the Arabs shut off the oil, inflation just does not look too scary right now. Wages will moderate (see the NFL refs - gladly willing to take a huge increase they had rejected days before)and consumers will bargain hunt, if they buy at all.

To: orkrious who wrote (28429)	9/21/2001 10:07:13 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 30051

Jay, right now, I have about a quarter delay in the old scenario, namely the next bull may not peak until the first or second quarter in 2003, maybe even later if we do not blow up too fast. The low for the whole "long term" (which I had for some time no at 1400) it has been reached on the naz but not on the Dow (where I still have 6000). I may have to lower further the Naz low, but I really do not know at this point. Generally, I see a rally from around here (bumpy at first) peaking around mid to late November and relapsing to just before Christmas, possibly to lows close to today's lows. Then I have the "all clear" for at least 3/4 quarters and if the market does not go mad, possibly more. The reason for the next phase down (in 2003, and maybe not until the second or 3rd Q) are being sewn right now with the extremely easy money (I am not critical of that approach, but i think we will have to pay for that later). Zeev