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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (19764)	9/21/2001 10:10:19 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Just looked at the utilities- and man do they look dismal. finance.yahoo.com^dju&d=c&k=c2&p=m50,m200 I wouldn't recommend stepping in front of runaway trains. Best to stand back at a distance.. CHeers <g>

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (19764)	9/22/2001 11:28:53 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Agree it is like jumping in front of a moving train on the utilities. I just said I was starting to watch, not become a bug on the windshield -ggg-. I show minor support around 300 on the DJU but suspect the real bottom won't be until around 270. On the SPU it will likely be around 230. I updated the Natural Gas Storage chart this morning. We are now tied with 1996 and at the current rate of restocking, could pass up the highest level of 1998 in the next couple weeks so inventories are high which should keep prices subdued. COTs did go slightly long though so maybe they know something like decreasing rig counts or something of that sort. I think I do recall that the count went down slightly the last couple weeks. marketswing.com Once hostilities break out, there should be a spike of cosumption in Jet fuel, and gasoline etc as we fly long bombing missions, fighter cover and the Army guys drive in in those economical Tanks. -gggg- That may eat up some oil and I was talking to Don last night about how best to play it. We didn't reach much of a conclusion though since I was looking at tankers but there apparently doesnt seem to be any publically traded tankers that are authorized to transport our fuel during a situation like this since they have to be American flagged due to the Jones act as he pointed out. Maybe refiners????? Interesting COT reports for the first two days of this week. While shorts on the S&P decreased noticeably, NDX commercials only dropped their short positions ever so slightly. What I found most interesting though is that the commercials suddenly are going long Wheat, Rice, Lumber and corn after being short these commodities most of the last year or two. Are these Inflation concerns as Greenspan floods the markets with cash liquidity???? I am not sure as I don't see a big change in their dollar positions and their Euro and most other exchange positions haven't changed a whole lot with exceptions below. They are still heavily short Oats, Hogs, and there is little change in soybeans. They are slightly short heating oil, and gasoline so no fuel fears showing up as yet other than Natural Gas shorts were flipped to long. The change in wheat may be a real FA weather related move but it seems strange that they are suddenly covering in wheat etc. and going long after being short for so long. They are heavily short the Nikkei (Japan ) by about 36% which is a new high short position and the Canadian Dollar along with the previously mentioned British Sterling but long the British Pound Sterling so the Sterling plays are likely a hedge or spread. One of the biggest swings were from short 28% on the Mexican Peso to 12% long. They are also very very long Live cattle by 11% after being short for over a year but feeder cattle is little changed. Anyway, interesting 2 day swing. Will have to see next week if these trends stay true. =============== As for the markets we care most about. Many Many potential good signs for a bounce next week. I have a ton of trend lines being hit or close to being hit within a day or two. I also saw a lot of Dojis, Hammers and bullish piercing line candlesticks. A few charts that caught my eye, MMM fork tine hit, AOL fork tine hit and hammer, the NASDAQ fork tine hit, UTX same and some capitulation or at least easing of the irrational exuberance on a few stocks like PG and some smaller Mo Mo techs. QCOM, RFMD and a few others holding up better than they should in this environment so the exuberance still isn't completely washed out but the drops in some crud like MU is showing that the dipsters may finally be waking up to reality. Recall that semis generaly bottom close to 1 to 1.5 times sales, and a PE of single digits in previous down cycles. OT As for the war stuff, I was getting so mad at CNN commenting on who was going, where they were going etc. I think if CNN had been around during WW II, they would have announced the Normandy invasion in advance and gave the time, heading and altitude of our bomb runs to the Nazis. One would think we could put a gag order on these guys since they don't seem to have any common sense of their own. Good Luck, Lee