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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (15241)	9/23/2001 9:25:47 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

c2, << Hard to believe that you have Q as no. l on your list of favorite stocks in your profile if you think that it fiddles the books. >> I said nothing about cooking the books. Qualcomm's presentation of pro-forma is highly creative (particularly as it relates to Globalstar). What does CSFB call this ... financial engineering? Good term. As Morningstar's Todd Bernier wrote, in commenting on Qualcomm's Q3 $275 million net loss relative to their pro-forma net income of $174.4 million: "no one should be surprised by these "special" charges, as Qualcomm takes them seemingly every quarter" << Can't look at the last quarter only. Market ignored it, too. >> We have been creatively blessed. <g> << where 75 million cdma handsets (down from 90 million, down from 80 million will get sold on CY01 on abysmal sub growth? ... We'll see. It's not over 'til it's over. More words: 1x, China, Sprint, Verizon, Sprint, etc. >> China, Sprint, Verizon, Sprint, and all the chimpanzee's horses and all the chimpanzee's men are not going to get cdma handsets to 75 million this calendar. Look for revised guidance to 70 million and then optimistically 65 to 68 million actual. << My post asked for a comparison of QCDMA and GPRS, EDGE and UMTS as technologies. >> I'd rather wait for yours. Oh, just as anticipated, there it is: << There's no comparison. Those technologies do not exist in any commercial sense. >> Perhaps you should pay more attention to what is happening in the real world rather than Quantasy land. Phase one of Qcdma2000 is well along in commercialization ... on 3 networks in one country, with one infra supplier, and is delivering peak rates of 153 kbps. I'm not overly concerned about KDDI pushing out 1xRTT, or the problems Telesp is experiencing with 1xRTT trialing. Those kinks will work there way out. It does seem like we are not yet into mass deployment, if you can call < 20 networks mass deployment. Phase one of GPRS is also well along in commercialization ... with over 60 networks on 3 continents commercially launched with infra provided by half a dozen infra suppliers, however, and another 60 networks either trialing. Mass deployment looks like it will begin about this time next year, by which time their should already be a reasonably substantial subscriber base. UMTS/WCDMA is precommercial and delivering peak rates of 384 kbps. No appreciable revenue to Qualcomm for sometime however, and certainly lots of anticipated issues to work through before we are commercial and mass deployment (even in Japan) is a long way out. EDGE (which our Qualcomm leader said would "never see the light of day") is edging closer to commercialization. The tough part is out of the way since it uses the same evolved GSM core and bearer as GPRS. EDGE requires basically new modems in the handset and cell sites. We have had informal comments from Nokia that handsets will deliver to the US Q202 and to Europe shortly after. I'm not taking that to the bank. I'll wait for a formal release (or the appearance of the units on AWS shelves). EDGE is an important element in the GSM migration path. The 7 IS-136 TDMA technology flips to GSM that have occurred in 6 countries are a direct result of the relatively near term availability of EDGE: * AT&T (USA) -> TDMA to GSM/GPRS overlay * Rogers AT&T (Canada) -> TDMA to GSM/GPRS overlay * Telecorp PCS (USA) -> TDMA to GSM/GPRS overlay * Telcel (Mexico) -> TDMA to GSM/GPRS overlay * Telecom Personal - TIM (Argentina) -> TDMA to GSM/GPRS overlay * Entel (Bolivia) -> TDMA to GSM/GPRS overlay * CTE (El Salvador) -> TDMA to GSM replacement I suspect that Cingular who is well along implementing GAIT (GSM ANSI-136 Interworking), will be next to announce. Have you heard of any IS-136 to CDMA "flips"? << Interesting to do a pro forma on revenues from GPRS, UMTS and EDGE which Nokia or any other supporter of those technologies may have realized, then subtract development and other technology-specific expenses. >> I'm not sure what that would accomplish. You really need to look at what the huge addressable market for GPRS, UMTS and EDGE infrastructure is in the future, and in the case of Nokia (or Ericsson/Sony, Siemens, Siemens/NEC, Motorola, et al) look at the corresponding market for handsets and balance this against the huge R&D investment Nokia (and others) have made, and are still making. Of course in the case of Nokia these considerable R&D investments have been made while putting REAL net profit dollars on the bottom line. << Do you have a hole big enough for that figure? >> LOL! Spoken like the Quonsummate Quidiot. - EriQuack -