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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (34400)	9/22/2001 5:29:58 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67877

>Part of the problem is that we really won't see a true bottom in the market till the last of the long term buy and hold types throw in the towel too. If this kind of thinking persists then COMPX 1000 is a really reality. The market will bounce a few time before we get there, but those comments indicate that true capitulation is not here yet. The FED can drag this out, but I don't believe they can stop a recession.< You could be right Harry but perhaps not. I do not disagree so much as have a different take. First I believe we are now in a recession. Second I do not believe anyone knows how long it will last. That is why everything is so uncertain. The stock market does not like uncertainty. Last week's selling? That was a lot of selling. In fact to me what we have been seeing lately looks an awful lot like capitulation. It might not be the bottom simply because we do not know how definitive our victory against terrorism will be or when the economy will show a sustained pick up. We do not know what to expect in either the short term or the long term. Without a victory or a strong sense that we are winning this war people will be fearful to spend money, travel or simply participate in the consumer end of our economy. We will win the war against terror. This will happen even as we draw the world closer to our way of life. Ultimately as a result of this terrorist action we will lead the world into an even greater era of prosperity than we have ever seen. Muslims are not our enemies. The Islamic religion is a peaceful religion. It is a religion that we only wish these terrorists actually practiced. These terrorists are fanatical extremists and every bit as psychotic as Adolf Hitler ever was in his own beliefs. Back to the market: As far as capitulation goes? I do not believe you will get every single long term holder to give up and throw in the towel at all. Uncertainty, margin calls and short term traders have been responsible for the majority of the selling over the past five trading sessions. Just as value investing came back so too will technology investing and momentum investing as well. The question now is where do we put our money to work? Do we play the few companies that will seemingly benefit from a war against terrorism and reduced business travel or do we look beyond them to a potential recovery and do some bottom fishing? This might work for a rally at least that we should expect once we exact some revenge against these terrorists. RtS