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To: JS who wrote (77150)	9/22/2001 5:15:20 PM
From: Enigma	Respond to of 116752

I'm not sure what sort of turning point. IMO this is a war which cannot be won - yes the US may do considerable damage ot property and no doubt many civilians will be killed ot displaced, but there's a severe risk of destabalisation of Pakistan. I think the turning point may be in a different direction. The U.S. will realise that hardware can't win the hearts and minds of it's enemies and neutrals may turn into bitter enemies. So the U.S. will be forced into a radical re-thinking of its foreign policy. It may take years. And without apparently knowing it the U.S. is brushing aside the United Nations Charter and is embarking on state terrorism. You might not like the ideology of a foreign nation, but you don't invade to put the other guys in power. An invasion of Afghanistan has to have some sort of end plan, because there will be losses of ground troops for sure, perhaps heavy losses. This wouldn't be like the Gulf War or Grenada.

To: JS who wrote (77150)	9/22/2001 7:06:06 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 116752

Twilko, JS, Tomasso: Twilko: I want to present you with a few facts: Over 58,000 Americans died in Vietnam and the cost of the war approached 150B. This war started well before the Nixon Presidency. In 1954, President Eisenhower offered South Vietnam direct aid. In February 1955, the U.S was dispatched to train the South Vietnam forces. In 1962, U.S. military strength in Vietnam had risen to over 11,000. The war escalated under the Johnson Administration. I understand and respect the fact that you are a proud Vietnam War Veteran. But the U.S. lost this war. The Vietnamese Guerillas held on long enough to accomplish exactly what they wanted. They also managed to kill more Americans in battle than at any time except during World War I, World War II and, of course, the Civil War. Most U.S. citizens got fed up over the mounting deaths and put the heat on the Nixon Administration to end the War. Radical Liberals, like myself, who were opposed to the war in principle, were in the minority. The U.S. failed to beat the Vietcong. It is as simple as that. JS: I sure hope the U.S. has the "Will" to win this war. It will be great for Israel if they do so and for the Free World at large. However, it will be a very long war IMO and very hard for most U.S. citizens to bear. Most U.S. citizens live in the fast food age. They like things to be accomplished real quick with very little hardships at home. They are so spoiled like most citizens in the last days of the Roman Empire. I know. I was born in NYC and went to High School, College and Graduate school in the USA. I've been in every state in the U.S.A, as well as every province in Canada. I think the Vietnam experience is relevant. U.S. ground forces are not as trained and capable as they were during the Vietnam War. And the U.S. lost that war. Moreover, the Afghan Guerillas are just as determined if not more so than the Vietcong. Tommaso: The economic situation in the U.S. is more dire than most economists want to admit. I can't blame their lies: some of their jobs are at stake. In the U.S., what matters most to Wall Street is dollars and cents. We are at the beginning of the Deflationary Bust in the U.S. I think this Bust will last longer and become more severe than most expect. Selected Gold stocks are poised to rally strongly IMO. There is no telling how low Fed Funds will go at this point. But the economic situation was extremely tragic in NYC before I left. And not only has the economy not improved, but it has gotten worse, according to my sources. It is absolutely amazing in my opinion that Barrons could have a front page cover story this weekend that it is "time to buy stocks." What a contrarian signal IMO! The Bull Market Mentality in the States just refuses to go away in spite of the severe declines. Although a very strong short term equity bounce is possible by mid-week, the U.S. economy is so bad that it precludes any kind of sustainable rally for some time to come. Before the attack, I had thought that an anemic recovery would begin in mid 2002. I now think that 2003 will be the earliest before the U.S. Economy recovers somewhat. I think investors/traders need to get away from their technical indicators and take a good look at how U.S. stocks traded during the escalation of the Vietnam War. The present war will not be bullish for equities. It is just a disastrous fundamental economic environment for equities and the perfect environment for gold mining stocks. Got Guts? Got Gold Stocks?