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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the truth who wrote (19792)	9/22/2001 8:50:30 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 52237

Your name is appropriate as what you say is probably the truth! -ggg- I was just looking at the tanker plays out there. They can't catch a bid yet they are mostly selling for .7 to .9 times book and some are below one times sales. Imagine how low the NASDAQ would be if it dropped to just 2 times book or sales? YIKES!!! Some of these pay those old fashioned dividends too, are they nuts?! As I told Don yesterday, I doubt my kids are going into anything for a long time since I am VERY careful with what I do with their college money and am not greedy since they have 17 years to ride the waves so I am thinking of just parking them in a 15% or better yielder and letting it sit. I have been just putting them in Oil Trusts last year when I saw a rally coming and if wrong, they could have just collected the 15% and later 18% dividends but they lucked out and the oils went up, then they were in Natural Gas Trusts that did the same. I am now trying to decide if they will go into Health care REITs, Tankers or an oil trust again. There are going to be counter trend bounces and I am expecting one soon although I agree with Don it won't be massive then I expect another leg down. I suspect that around October/November, we will have one heck of a major rally that will have all the Mo MO guys excited and proclaiming an end of the bear. I am expecting this to be huge and capture the last penny of the fools before a plunge that will wipe out most investors. I hope I am wrong but as you point out, many of these techs will simply vanish. If they couldn't make real money in the biggest boom time bull via GAAP accounting methods and had to resort to Pro Forma, trading tech stocks to meet growth targets and selling poots against their own stock etc. then what are they going to do now that the good times are over? Of course the CSCOs, DELLs, SUNWs, INTCs etc will be around and they will buy some of the smaller players as they all merge to survive but they won't be the darlings everyone came to love. They will represent more than 4 letter ticker symbols, they will become four letter words that shouldn't be uttered around the children. -gggg- I find it hard to believe that so many are still buying the hype. As I posted on our site the other day, I walked into an office on base last week and a guy was trying to reach his broker as the market was dropping hard. Turns out he was trying to buy INSP. When I asked why he was buying a nut stock, he said that "A couple years ago, it just kept going up and splitting and splitting so he was going to load up while it was down. After all, it was only a little over a dollar!" As long as QCOM is over 20 and the semis are in double digit PE ratios, we aren't at bottom yet IMO BWDIK Good Luck, Lee