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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (14337)	9/23/2001 6:54:47 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

After the first big 5er from a bottom it would be The Bottom, wouldn't it? Not so easy as that I think. If you wait until the end of the "first big 5er" you will likely have missed any reasonable entry. Many folks, and probably most EW types, thought the run off the Mar/Apr lows was an impulsive move. Also, a 5er could be the first leg of a corrective zigzag. We have to throw other stuff into the mix, you know, sentiment, TA, and FA. Against that backdrop one can make reasonable decisions about the health of a run. Even I had thought that the move back in Apr/May was impulsive. Luckily, I did not buy the nice looking up moves during the summer (the decline off the May highs) because the backdrop wasn't right to believe that we would start another leg. At least once, when the SOX was going nuts (perhaps it was the Merrill pump rally), I really thought that I had missed the boat. Fortunately, my skepticism was rewarded. Very few will call the bottom and many will waste their time and money trying to catch it. I think the only thing that we can do is recognize small impulsive-looking moves, 1's or A's, against a backdrop of TA damage to the upside and sentiment that does not get too giddy too quickly, then get on board and let the stops do the thinking. Cheers