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To: chowder who wrote (8519)9/23/2001 11:48:59 AM
From: Gottfried  Respond to of 23153
 
dabum, thank you for your chart interpretation. I'll have to stare at stock charts a bit more to see if I want to join you long. Best of luck!

Gottfried



To: chowder who wrote (8519)9/23/2001 9:02:28 PM
From: Sweet Ol  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23153
 
Dabum & all, I think it is prudent to be very careful about indicators that are based on moving averages. Mathematically, it takes a while for them normalize after an extremely sharp move in either direction. The last week has been about as sharp a move as you are likely to see in your lifetime. As a result, it will be a while before the moving averages do not over weight the immediate past. All of these oversold indicators will are going to be suspect for a while. For the most part they are optimized for modest swings and not the sort of thing we just experienced.

Just for fun, chart an index and then play with different values for the indicators and you will see what I mean.

Now, this is not to say that we are not oversold, but I think we need to add a few more grains of salt than usual to the indicators for the next few weeks. Be cautious.

Best to all,

JRH