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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kvkkc1 who wrote (55593)	9/23/2001 12:16:39 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Not accurate, no I confess. I had to ballpark a response because I was going off the cuff. Within factor 20-30% however. My numbers for Cisco are precise via spreadsheet to as many digits of precision as you want. But because they involve guesswork, they are inaccurate. Other numbers for other companies I have to calculate on the fly and there's a lot of work behind the forensics. Easy to get wrong responding to a post on SI. Honestly since I've been out of the market I haven't run the numbers on equity for many months, so I don't have much that's up to date. Except Cisco that is. You folks have forced me to keep honest and so I've got a lot of data on Cisco by now... lol... But on others that you mention, not so much. As to my valuations being ignored... well, yes, Mr. Market gives a value at the moment that is different from mine. By definition mine is wrong. Of course, in some cases it is getting less wrong. Which is the whole point of the exercise. By definition we start off wrong and try to be less wrong. When buying, one wants to be wrong, but from below. Yes? As to what numbers the fundies use? There are two games afoot in the market: game #1 is what is the company really worth intrinsicly. Game #2 is what I can convince someone to take it off my hands for. One is a long-term view, the other is short term. Most mutual funds are in the annual performance (short term) game. They will happily buy Ponzi.com and ride it up. That doesn't mean they think it's a great buy for 20 years out. Just that the market will give them a return. And they will gladly invoke "buy as a patriot" marketing gimmicks. Because they work. In the short term. My perspective is long term. I will point to Ponzi.com and say "that's a loser" even while it's rocketing up. Because gravity wins in the end. Oh, and no mistake about it I also put a lot of money in these puppies when the tide was rising (and took most of it out) so I know how to play that game. However, in a bear market the strategy shifts to be one of capital preservation. Am I invincible? No. In fact my expected personal fallibility is precisely why my estimates are so conservative. If I am wrong, the most I lose is some upside. Big deal. When one has a small fortune, turning it into a bigger fortune isn't as important as preventing it from becoming a fond memory. At least to me, in my stage of my life. So far I've been more right than wrong. At least over time frames measured in months. I am clueless when it comes to short term movements. John.