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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Byron who wrote (12185)	9/23/2001 6:01:36 PM
From: Tom Byron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 80990

my one hour is up at the library....got to go...see ya tomorrow...the markets await....:)

To: Tom Byron who wrote (12185)	9/24/2001 6:26:17 AM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 80990

Thanks guree. I'm also not sure what to make of the charts. It seems Mr Lamprecht has drawn lines anywhere it suits him. The www.spglobal.com S&P EPS estimates are very interesting and coincide with my own gut-feel estimates (based on the charts at www.yardeni.com but which are not updated). Looking back historically on these charts (also in the charts provided in the book "Irrational Exuberance" by Schiller) one can see bear market bottom PE ratios on the S&P are around 10-12. This means that the S&P is still (at 970) at least 50% or more overpriced . It requires no stretch of the imagination to know what will happen to investor confidence if the S&P was allowed to fall to 600-700 so it's my guess that they will pump in funds to keep the market up even if, and they know it themselves, the market is still overvalued. However, I don't believe all the money-printing, stock-price manipulation, interest-rate manipulation and the rest of the hype and bullshit is the basis for a continued price recovery, certainly not the resumption of a bull market. So (for what it's worth) what I expect to happen is that stock prices will continue to drift along, in a kind of trading range, for some years to come. By the way, apropos the expected bull market in gold, I am also very apprehensive. As you know the principal use for gold is jewelry. Now, if consumer confidence is shattered and people are frightened about whatever, will they buy jewelry? I'm not so sure. Maybe gold has a hedge quality to certain investors who expect currency devaluations but, quite frankly, in times of war the USD always does well. God Bless America.