Here's an SI Cool Post that IMVHO deserves the honor.
OT Subject: A Military Historian Speaks
From: Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of military history. I have joined the cast of
thousands who have written an "open letter to Americans."
Dear friends and fellow Americans 14 September, 2001
Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I
am not reeling from surprise.
As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have a different perspective and I think you should
hear it. This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers.
Let me briefly explain.
In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us, this act was not committed by a group of
mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was
committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these
men and I deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made with the
Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent
America, but also because we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we think this war
is over, just like my father's generation had to
do with the formidable Japanese in the years following WWII.
These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must not underestimate the power of their moral
commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral is to the
physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance and said moral conviction
was five times more important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are willing - better said anxious-to give
their lives for their cause.
How committed are we America? And for how long?
In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic
fundamentals of warfare taught to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and surprise. When I
first heard rumors that some of these men may have been
trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was not a random act of violence, and we can
expect the same sort of military competence to be displayed in the battle to come.
This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening right here in the good ol' U.S. of A.
These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming
conventional strength as the world's only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in
this fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for the march for war, please realize
that America is not equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our
soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are
mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may come in handy). We
will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their
early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man.
Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20
countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and
destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive until the strategy and
tactics can be worked out.
For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining itself and presided over by men and women who
grew up with - and were promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This will not be
linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast
technological edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming
battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft-this will be a knife fight, and it will be
won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. We must also be patient
with our military leaders.
Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our adversaries have time on their side, and they
will use it. They plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the American public loses its will to
fight. This might be difficult to
believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that America lacks the
stomach for a long fight. We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo
Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United States of America without ever winning a major
tactical battle. American soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled
and spat upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we hope that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he
is certain to understand and employ the concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks,
but! also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and
power distribution facilities.
These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the average American to "pay more and play less"
and eventually eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the will of the American
citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity the
enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient,
and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most
often quoted and least read military theorist in
history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political
leadership of the government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that order.
Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to
be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will of the American people will decide this war. If we
are to win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere through a few more hits, learn from our! mistakes,
improvise, and adapt. If we can do that, we will eventually prevail.
Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has shared a common frustration, saying in one form or another "I just
wish I could do something!" You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and continue to support your
President and military, and the outcome is certain.
If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.
God Bless America
Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy |
