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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Byron who wrote (12200)	9/24/2001 11:31:52 AM
From: Tom Byron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81003

and here is some addition commentary by brother aurophile re: THA chart.....all for what it is worth, of course....:) this is the commentary on the semi-log andrews/bisect chart i put up at another site today: i showed this now-updated chart sometime earlier this year. i don't make any great claims for it except interest. i originally chose the 1949 as the anchor for two reasons: it is generally agreed that 1949 was the last Kondratieff Wave low, and there is a school of Elliottists--including but not limited to Neely-- who feel 1949 was the end of the correction process from 1929. i chose the post-WW II daily NYSE A/D high and low points in time (1956 and 1974) as being the points of greatest and least "exuberance" for the economy and markets. those who do andrews bisects know that they are automatically generated from the anchors. i cannot speak for the validity of using a semi-log chart for a bisect of this nature except that this is a very long term chart with an enormous price range, and that that is the reason why semi-logs are often recommended. when i first drew this chart last year, i was expecting a significant pullback but not a huge bear market. therefore i was somewhat dubious at the time about the significance. it is impressive that the three great bull runs since WW II--1949-56, 1982-87, 1996-2000 were about the same in percent gained to the maximum momentum point. even though the market staggered on from 1956 to 1966 to 1972, the late 1950's already showed the vulnerabilities of the market and economy, with a series of recessions starting with the whopper of 1958. my original expectation was that after a pullback from last year, the market would hover under the upper channel line as it had done under the median bisect line from 1988-94. now we have come back to the bisect line very quickly and erased 44% of the entire 1982-2000 gains! the usefulness of the andrews time and price range bisect--i call it andrews for convenience but others before and after andrews have done similar things--is that the 50% time/price range point is a pivot balance point for the whole market. one could argue that by drawing a straight line at random on a long term chart one will hit some important price and time points. this observation could be true for any analytical study. it was in fact the opinion of the "old school" that all technical analysis was "voodoo" in this sense. this particular study does now have some signficant history since its third anchor point in 1974. the 1980 and 1982 lows were essentially on the lower channel. 1982-87 exploded to the bisect. 1989-94 rose along the underside of the bisect at nearly the same rate of climb as the whole channel construct. the 1996 low was virtually on the bisect, and the 2000 high was on the upper channel line. and now back to the bisect. this is a 50% time/price retracement and a 2/3 price alone retracement from the 1996 low. obviously this is not a trader's chart. lol. just an example of historic market analysis. cheers! td" " Follow Ups: Re: for humble1 humble1 (daniel watkins) 03:40:50 9/24/01 (3) Re: for humble1 foton (frank oster) 08:14:12 9/24/01 (0)