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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (125201)9/24/2001 2:03:35 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
I agree completely with that Haim -- I thought you were making a comment more general about the economy turning around. That was what I referenced ...

I would not short tech stocks here (neither would I buy them).

I believe we are headed into a sever recession and there will be many "false-breaks" where it looks like things are about to get better for businesses but they don't. The problem is not where stock prices are, or where interest rates are -- BUT where they have been and what this has caused: namely misallocation and destruction of real economic capital -- productive goods. AG would say "distortion." That's a perfectly good word -- I just think he is off by a few orders of magnitude as to how bad the "distortions" or "imbalances" are which have accumulated during the last 7 - 8 yrs.

Good trading. Whither the Euro and Yen??



To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (125201)9/24/2001 2:17:18 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
Haim another thought if you'll permit me -- re energy prices falling through the floor.

I think what you are seeing is the market starting to really discount a world-wide slowdown in future economic activity, not just less ari-traffic which doesn't amount to much overall, anyway (re oil).

Has / will the US press its allies for lower prices? Sure ... but the drop off has been very rapid in light of what is happening.