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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (2086)	9/24/2001 4:32:08 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 36161

So will gold benefit or the US dollar? thestreet.com Could be both short term, but long term the spring just keeps coiling for gold.

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (2086)	9/24/2001 5:00:43 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Art, Can't agree with you on gold demand. From what I have heard, coin sales have taken off considerably since the WTC tragedy. Depending on the dealer you talk to, demand is up 30 to 200%. Scared money? You bet, but because of the spread between spot and the ask price for gold coins (the premium), the coins seldom come back. Very nearly permanently removed from the market, a one way trip, because if prices stay within 25 bucks +/- of current POG its not worth the trouble and the premium loss to cash in ones gold coin "insurance". If POG goes up more than that, then the bull market effect begins and coin buyers are just as likely to buy more as sell (the renowned buy at the top effect,ggg). BTW, the premium on coins has increased substantially from a few weeks ago. Furthermore, jewelry demand for gold is not as significantly effected by gold price increases as one might think. While this seems counterintuitive, remember that manufacturers keep bare minimum quantities of product on hand when it is a commodity falling in price. They might not even keep an inventory but buy at spot! But an increasing commodity price causes some inventory to be kept and increased buying of future contracts to try and lock in the price if it is rising. This creates demand. Plus we have to realize that at US markups, the POG is a smaller component of the jewelry prices than one might imagine when buying a 14kt chain, for ex. Having said all that bullish stuff, the TA is not so comforting short term. HUI came very close to closing below it's 9-19 gap (5 min chart). Having some chart site problems and can't get a good enough measure of that 9-19 gap to be sure (hard to see on "cheap charts", ggg). If this is the case, IMHO, the recent HUI H&S measure is for a drop to 64 or so. I'm not even going to talk about the (imperfect) Evening Star candle pattern. If we have no further "events" short term to stir the gold market, that is, and I sure hope we don't. Best Regards, Roebear

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (2086)	9/24/2001 5:19:45 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Art: A bit of panic buying perhaps, but gold and especially gold shares performed very poorly last week considering world events. I blame that on aggressive central bank intervention. Several respected commentators (not bold bugs) have argued that the central banks were doing all in their power to keep the gold price under $300 last week, so as not to add to the panic in the financial markets.

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (2086)	9/25/2001 12:41:51 AM
From: MetalTrader	Respond to of 36161

art, I think you have hit the argument spot on. If the rise of gold shares does not relate to jewellry or account settlement it would suggest either that fundamental argument is incomplete or it is irrelevant. To call it panic buying is simply a knee jerk reaction to the media hype of the past week. The gold shares have been calmly moving, testing and retesting support for a year now. Until gold shares begin to make lower highs and lower lows the trend is up and investable (albeit extended at the moment), be that for the next month or the next 5 years.