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To: Nathan who wrote (125263)	9/24/2001 4:46:41 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 436258

I'm thinking about panic in the credit derivatives market, which would generally mean your worst case predictions. It can be as bad as NDX-500, Dow-6000.It can be worse. Without anything unusual, I guess, SPX-850, Dow-7500. We'll see, but the slope has changed. The credit market is important to watch. Credit spreads are enormous. I'm afraid, if the credit bubble bursts, we may dive to the ultimate lows quite quickly. And these are much lower than we are now, at least 70% lower.