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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (55634)	9/24/2001 10:47:26 PM
From: TigerPaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

You used equivalent arguments back then too. It may be the environment that changed, not the argument. Absent a clear commitment to a world connected economy then national centric views prevail, and the U.S. is already built out for the most part. TP

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (55634)	9/25/2001 7:52:57 AM
From: kvkkc1	Respond to of 77400

re: ? But I think that in an even longer time it will be more profitable to buy 12,500 in 30 year bonds than buy a thousand shares of Cisco and hold it for 30 years.> The thing you never hear these bond pushers ever talk about is the downside to the invested capital. Interest rates are getting awfully low, so imo, there is as much risk of losing your capital, if not more, buying bonds, especially 30 year instruments. And is that risk worth the 3% real return, assuming approx. 6% interest and 3% inflation over 30 years. I happen to think inflation will be higher. bonds aren't without risk.knc

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (55634)	9/25/2001 10:15:28 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Obviously, John, I said some things for dramatic affect. I almost always crunch the numbers to check out stocks before I invest in them. However, my due diligence doesn't end there. I always look at the soft factors as well. These things you seem to ignore, at your own peril. What's more is that I agree using EPS is also a fallacy. When I do my own forecasts, I use free cash flow, not EPS. However, in your previous example posted to me, you used EPS, so I thought I'd humor you. But EPS and the income statement in general have never been something I care about. Too much manipulation possible there. Free cash flows says it all. Having said that, though, net income is a proxy for free cash flow over the very long term, like 30 years, because short term distortions get washed out over the long term. Anyway, you and I go back and forth on these same issues over and over and I don't think either of us makes any ground. Your assumptions are too extremely conservative, IMHO, and you ignore many of the soft factors that tip this decision to the positive side. So I personally don't think Bonds will be a better investment than Cisco over the long term and I have made my bet again on that premise. I bet I eek out a great return between now and Jan, at which point, I will reconsider whether I hold and go long or flip it, if I'm feeling queasy.