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To: BGR who wrote (125344)	9/24/2001 10:53:11 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

<As for the rest, Tippet, if the business cycle has not yet reared its ugly head, > Stock market is a leading indicator... unemployment a very lagging indicator, you have to wait. DAK

To: BGR who wrote (125344)	9/24/2001 10:58:23 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

If only definitions were facts LOL, stop being so skeptical.

To: BGR who wrote (125344)	9/24/2001 11:03:44 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

The business cycle has hit, BGR. The question being debated is how deep is the recession we are in. All the pundits say -- ordinary recession. Problem is, it is anything but ordinary. Typically these things end in price inflation. That has been rather absent and yet profits have fallen off a cliff, suddenly and dramatically. There yet remains a majority, of which you are a fine representative, which believes policy makers understand what is going on and will guide us through a rather rough patch -- then it will be BAU. It won't be. AG will no longer be worshipped. President Bush will probably be blamed -- as if anything he has done will have had anything to do with it. I have been buying gold shares in earnest since November of last year. Gold has risen off its lows and not revisited a new bottom in that time-frame. If this is sucking wind, it sure beats sucking CSCO. As I said, I knew you would say that we've already had this crisis and that crisis and express your scepticism. That's good. Another 10% decline in the Nasdaq won't be significant from a personal standpoint for me. You are fixated on the market -- you need to think a little bit about economics an business conditions going forward, instead. Japan's bubble is quite different from ours, I think in many respects. Probably the most important way it is different is that they did not suffer a collapse simultaneous with global economic weakening and their currency was not THE reserve currency of the world at the time. The USD, while off its highs, must fall relative to other currencies if we are have even a chance at recovery. Of course, these needs to happen slowly lest foreigners pull investment, en masse. At any rate, our appetite for foreign goods and a USD falling with respect to other currencies will prove inflationary (according to the only definition you understand -- price inflation) and contractive for the rest of the world, even if it stimulates our exports.