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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: willcousa who wrote (53101)	9/25/2001 11:34:17 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

IC Insights now sees IC sales declining 34% in 2001, but still expects 14% growth in 2002 SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- These are certainly tough times for market researchers who watch the semiconductor and production equipment industries. No one had predicted such a bad year and some were even forecasting a turnaround this fall--but that was before September 11th. Bill McClean, CEO of IC Insights, had finished his September Update just before the World Trade Center tragedy. It had appeared to him that the global IC business was set to begin its recovery with major suppliers expecting a market "bottom" to develop in the third quarter. Now, he says, the events of September 11th make the IC industry outlook "much more uncertain." IC Insights now believes the worldwide IC market in the third quarter may decline as much as 15% from the previous quarter to $25 billion. "Currently," McClean says, "the most likely result for the worldwide IC industry this year will be a 34% decline to about $117 billion." The Scottsdale-based research firm still expects a significant rebound in worldwide economic growth and electronic system sales to begin in mid-2002. "This in turn should fuel a surge in IC sales," McClean says. IC Insights' 14% growth forecast "is still in place," he says, adding that sequential IC market growth in the third and fourth quarter "could be 10% or greater." One big help: There will be no significant IC inventory overhang hindering growth next year. July IC data confirms worst ever downturn SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- IC market figures for July confirm the current downturn is the worst ever to hit the global IC industry. The third quarter will be the fourth quarter in a row that the global IC market registers a decline -- the first time in the history of the IC industry, notes Bill McClean, CEO of IC Insights. The July market was down almost 50% from year-ago July, with every major IC product category falling at least 20%. Because unit sales also were down 30%, McClean believes the extended IC inventory "burn" is due more to the current global recession and first-ever drop in worldwide electronic system sales than from excess stockpiles accumulated last year. The drop in IC average selling price (ASP) has been especially steep in this downturn, McClean says. The July ASP was only $1.50, a price level last seen nine years ago. Sales of all IC categories fell 20% or more in July Segments July 2000 sales July 2001 sales % change DRAM $2,749 million $600 million -78% Digital bipolar $81 million $26 million -68% MOS PLD $476 million $168 million -65% SRAM $527 million $189 million -64% MOS logic $234 million $104 million -56% Flash memory $763 million $354 million -54% MOS gate array $225 million $110 million -51% DSP $422 million $247 million -41% ROM $84 million $50 million -40% MOS std. cell $641 million $386 million -40% EPROM $52 million $32 million -38% MOS display drivers $354 million $218 million -38% Analog $2,438 million $1,531 million -37% Microprocessor $2,004 million $1,283 million -36% Microperipherals $883 million $584 million -34% Source: WSTS, IC Insights