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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (8617)	9/25/2001 1:32:06 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 23153

I am flying next week from Newark, and I still consider the drive to the airport infinitely more dangerous than the flight. OECD stocks are on the low side and Winter may be a bigger influence that actual change in economic activity. Perception will probably overrule all other considerations for some time. I cant believe I can keep getting in KWK 12.7 yesterday and 11.8 today. More EVG as well. Its nice to ride a trend for awhile, instead of fighting one. If traffic in the NY metro area is an indication, gasoline demand will be down hard, once everyone has their tanks filled.

To: energyplay who wrote (8617)	9/25/2001 1:39:07 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Respond to of 23153

energyplay Re: <<How many weeks or months before people want to fly again ?>> My answer is weeks, not months. I think we'll be back in the 90% rate in about 3 weeks if we have no more incidents involving commercial planes. People will travel and they won't take trains, cars or boats on longer trips. By the way, x and y will be worth .9x and .87y in the new environment. g. Ed

To: energyplay who wrote (8617)	9/25/2001 1:59:42 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

ep, good questions. People get used to anything. Take an activity which most adult Americans engage in most days of the week and which is well known to lead to the killing of over 100 people daily and maiming of others. It does not stop anyone from driving. Gottfried

To: energyplay who wrote (8617)	9/25/2001 9:51:21 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Hi ep, Re: Those of you who have the answers, please post. Even one answer would be appreciated.... OK, I'll take a crack at $/bbl crude awl. Generally it's been my experience that a 1% imbalance in supply/demand results in a 50% move in price. Let's say that the events of Sept. 11 took us from somewhere near a balanced market to a position where we have a 2% shortfall in demand over the next few months. OPEC has decided not to cut back immediately to match the new demand curve and crude in transit is likely to skyrocket, exceeding the refiner's capacity to ship product. Starting with a $27 base price per barrel, 3 cuts of 50% each would bring us to ($27.00/2)/2= $6.75/bbl by February, unless supply is curtailed. This I would expect would be the outside estimate for a spike down in price without intervention on the part of OPEC and other producers. More likely, IMO, would be the low teens for crude by mid-winter, due to continuing anemic demand in the face of lowered supply. NOAA weather projections, though suspect, don't anticipate the same severe weather the U.S. experienced last November and December. And reversing to course of cancellations on air transport and vacation/convention business will take a few months at least. Just a speculation thrown out to see what some of the really smart observers here think of the possibilities. R.