Thx Frank. Here's a good article by Marshall Loeb
from CBS Marketwatch. He stresses areas of leadership in the real "new era" that began on 9/11. Some are themes we've been talking about like your recent points about energy security. And some we haven't.
After the article I've got some thoughts that ought to stimulate discussion<GGG>.
Best,
Isopatch
IN THIS NEW WORLD, EXPECT CHANGES Commentary: Here's what is coming
By Marshall Loeb, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 2:41 PM ET Sept. 21, 2001
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- It has become a commonplace to say that, after the terrorist attack
that violated America, we shall never be the same again. That's only partly true. This
country remains strong, and so does its economy.
We are still home to the world's most productive workers and most creative entrepreneurs, among many other assets. But we have been shaken to our roots, and some of our habits and institutions will change. Here is my view of several of the basic changes ahead:
1.There will be somewhat more emphasis on our personal safety and security, and somewhat less
emphasis on our personal freedom and privacy. This inevitably will lead to more rules and regulations handed down by Washington and local authorities. Of course, our basic national
freedoms-freedom of speech, press, religious belief, and more--will be sacrosanct. But there will be stronger restrictions and controls to protect the nation and its institutions. For example, the government will gain more sweeping authority to secretly monitor the phones and banking records of people suspected of committing significant crimes. The most serious debate in the nation will be where to draw the line, where and how to balance the often competing demands of security and freedom. But, says former White House Counsel and federal judge Abner J. Mikva: "What was unreasonable before September 11 may not be unreasonable today."
2.There will be a new emphasis on liberating the U.S. from its increasing dependence on oil
imports from the explosive Middle East and other unstable neighborhoods. Look for more
domestic drilling for oil- and for a federally backed drive to buy more oil from friendly, nearby
and secure Mexico and Canada. And, like it or not, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in
Alaska will be opened for oil exploration and development.
3.There will be tougher regulations from Washington requiring higher gasoline mileage from cars,
trucks and other motor vehicles. On the other side of the equation, there will be some
loosening of other environmental controls that tend to impede economic development.
4.There will be a massive rebuilding project in Lower Manhattan that will lift not only the New
York City regional economy but also the U.S. economy as a whole. Fortune magazine
estimates that Manhattan alone accounts for 2.5 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic
Product. The repair and rebuilding could cost as much as $30 billion, or 1 percent of the GDP.
The demand for construction workers and other skilled labor will be huge. So will the demand
for computers and systems, telecommunications equipment, office furniture and myriad other
goods and services. These developments will serve to reduce unemployment and increase
production.
5.There will be more emphasis in our schools and universities on teaching and learning foreign
languages, notably the many languages of the Moslem World and other Third World
Countries. Simultaneously, in diplomatic circles, there will be more attention paid to the
Middle East as an issue that absolutely has to be addressed-and solved.
6.There will be a new emphasis on combating cyber-terrorism, in which an enemy attempts to
disrupt the nation by destroying or snarling its computer or telecommunications systems. (So
look for companies to invest more in backup, contingency systems.)
7.There also will be greater emphasis on preventing and defeating biological warfare. This drive
will, among many other things, heighten demand for the products of pharmaceutical and
biotech companies. Fortune, in its excellent issue of October 8, quotes D.A. Henderson,
Director, Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Defense Studies. His warning:
"Colin Powell has said that he fears biological weapons more than nuclear weapons. We are most
concerned about smallpox. The Soviet Union decided to weaponize the smallpox virus. They had
some 60,000 scientists in 50 laboratories working in their bio-weapons program. With the end of the
Cold War, funds dried up, and many of the scientists left. They went to many different places. There
are a number in the United States, but some went to Iraq, Syria, Libya and North Korea. These
scientists carried with them knowledge; whether they carried organisms with them as well we really
don't know.
"Smallpox is clearly the worst of the pestilential diseases. Our problem is that we stopped
vaccinating in this country in 1972, and worldwide in 1980, so we have susceptibility in about 80% of
the population. We have kept some vaccine in the United States, but we now assume that in the
case of even a small release of smallpox we would exhaust our supply in about five weeks."
Marshall Loeb, former editor of Fortune, Money, and The Columbia Journalism Review, writes "Your
Dollars" exclusively for CBS.MarketWatch.com.
www2.marketwatch.com;
Frank,
Loeb certainly stresses that the strategic importance of secure North American energy supplies is FINALLY going to get the respect and emphasis it should have been receiving long long ago in the US.
Can't even begin to count the number of prophetic warnings I've read since the 1986 crude oil crash - from small independent producers as well as the CEOs of major oil and gas firms - that were repeatedly dismissed by our political establishment of both parties.
The politically correct attitude vis a vis oil during the past administration reminds me of the city kid who, when asked by a teacher about the importance of the Dairy Industry replied,
"What do we need cows for. We can just go to the store and buy a bottle of milk."
With a corresponding lack of perspective, our leaders simply went to the OPEC store every time they were concerned instead of opening up ANWAR and offering better incentives to keep an enormous number of stripper wells from being plugged during the past 15 years in the lower 48. Even very modest incentives would have kept thousands of wells producing for many years while new drilling and exploration is done in Alaska and offshore. Most Americans don't realize that in the late 1980s, our several hundred thousand stripper (less than 10 bbl/day) wells produced over 1.2 million bbls of most light sweet crude oil per day !
But now, we are in a different world. And it's time to get serious about incentives for oil fields to move to secondary and especially tertiary recovery as well as strong emphasis on exploring some hitherto set aside provinces that shows promise of helping us find and produce new reserves.
It's time to put offshore California back into the exploration and development loop by overriding the same kind of silly environmental obstructionism that produced the CA power crisis. And while we're at it? The Gulf Coast of Florida should also be opened up.
And to finish my little domestic energy security plan let's hope we don't have to wait for an some terrorist cell to smuggle a couple of nukes into the middle of the Saudian Arabain Oil fields BEFORE we declare a national energy emergency and return the millions of acres of land of privately owned land, some highly prospective for major NG exploration, that was grabbed in the last few days of the Clinton Administration.
IMO all the above is non-negotiable with the environmental extremists that have opposed almost every form of resource and infrastructure development imaginable for many years.
They are out of power and we are in. So, in the next few years, I'm confident we'll FINALLY get these absolutely essential exploration and development projects under way. No I'm not saying we'll be energy independent.
We'll continue to be a good customer for our neighbors in Canada and Mexico. But we still need to do as much as we can domestically.
Iso |
