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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (15076)	9/26/2001 10:59:20 AM
From: Rillinois	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Wally, Mike Tarsala's reporting and O'Neil's comments are a joke. Re: He says he's used the system for more than 30 years to call major bottoms in the past, and it hasn't failed. Was Mike Tarsala born yesterday or is he just lazy? I believe it was just about 5 months ago (late April) that O'Neil and his paper identified another follow-through day and went as far as drawing a cup-and-handle on the General Market & Sectors page detailing the formation point by point and day by day. He also took out a full page add on May 7, 2001, declaring the bottom of the bear market and calling for the small-to mid-sized consumer related companies to lead the next bull market. The market peaked 2 weeks later. Re: The 4 stocks that are highlighted. It's not clear to me from the article who is picking these stocks, O'Neil or Tarsala, but 3 out of 4 of them aren't classic CANSLIM prospects. Maybe the system has changed. <g> EDO EPS rank is 62. Earnings growth the last 4 quarters are 0%, 52%, 4% and 0%. Sales growth has declined sequential the last 4 quarters. Average volume is currently 120,000 and was below 70,000 just 10 days ago. (The old "small-cap stocks are where it's at" O'Neil would not have minded this, but the "post-large-cap rally of the 90's" O'Neil likes large liquid names.) DRS Exactly what kind of base has DRS formed???? I would say it looks extended post terrorist attack. Earnings growth is better here, sales growth is questionable. Average volume is currently 141,000 and was 70,000 a couple of weeks ago. SMR rating is a C. ATK Earnings growth is less then stellar here. 13%, 14%, 7% and 13%. Sales growth has been anemic before last quarter and one quarter is not sufficient under CANSLIM. Where is the "pivot point" on this one? Post attack it looks extended. This is not a valid base according to O'Neil. LLL This is probably the only one that meets most CANSLIM criteria. I would say the 9/17/01 high is the pivot and a high volume breakout from that point would be acceptable to O'Neil. Best Regards. Rillinois

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (15076)	9/26/2001 11:17:56 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 42834

Interesting Wally Someone just posted here that Don Hays was ALSO looking for the "O'Neil type" Follow-through day: suite101.com and I asked if that was discredited several times already this year as the bear market didn't bottom but just had a CT rally. I actually clicked over here to ask Mr BSL's opinion as he is the resident O'Neil expert. Since the TRIN 10 DMA hit 1.5, Don Hays have been getting more and more bullish adding more stocks as we go lower and lower. It might be a great strategy if we are higher in the long term and bottom picking is truly impossible but Hays might have to give up and join those of us that say you can't predict these things if we keep going lower. (of course, it won't stop us from trying or keeping track of those that do try!) I keep thinking that the real bottom will come when people like Hays, Brinker and Tarsala stop looking for it because they will all have their QQQ disasters where they give up their advantage of a cash position over a well allocated portfolio that just rebalances as the market goes lower (buying low) and then rebalances as it goes higher (sell high). I ALSO think the recovery of a new bull will still have many negative types saying that the long term bulls are idiots just as they did in the 1990's.