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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (8815)	9/26/2001 2:48:08 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

BRCD is on an Oct quarter. I heard that on September 10th, they were then positioned for a strong quarter, probably slightly ahead of expectations. Since then, IT budgets are in even more retreat while the need for secure, reliable back-up and retrieval is notably higher. Especially cost effective back-up such as what a SAN does. But needs and revenues aren't tracking well anymore... On the plus side, they don't have the problem of the attack happening in the last month of the quarter but given the IT spending hit we just took, we can be pretty sure they won't be taking numbers up. The question is how much they take them down. If numbers are only adjusted slightly, this stock is a buy right now. But we won't know that for a while.... The market might act like the aftermath of 1987. It jumped and then stayed in a range the rest of the year as the world pondered the thought of a long, severe recession. That said, the DJIA '87 crash merely retraced one-year of gains and then stabilized. The NASDAQ has recently backed us up to mid-'97 and panic low '98 levels. Just as the parabolic move on the upside was unpredictible in its extent, so has been the down move. Assuming the market averages can manage to stay in a range for the rest of the year, many stocks will still continue to head toward zero as their 'micro' outlook drags them down. This environment isn't a good one for trying to pick bottoms. Not much to say about how low it could go in terms of multiple contraction. It could go to 25x depressed earnings ($12 or so) and then eventually be a ten-bagger... I have heard of CIO's and purchasing managers that are trying to hang on to their jobs. They don't want to get laid off and they can't really stand up and say they have to have IT dollars this quarter... I am sure tempted to buy BRCD here and just put it away... but the trend is not friendly right now....