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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techanalyst1 who wrote (1584)	9/26/2001 5:09:10 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1805

AMCC's estimates jump around so much over time that it really doesn't make sense to equate today's estimate to the 'right' price level for the stock. On January 1st of this year, AMCC's consensus estimate was $.75 and now it is negative... You just end up chasing your tail playing that game of changing your valuation target by orders of magnitude by guessing revenues a few quarters out. Today's consensus estimate is just a snapshot in time and over a few months will mean as little $.75 does now... $1b in cash guarantees their survival and so it is worth paying attention. The $40mm in revenues is so depressed by the inventory correction and end market weakness that it is not even sensible to use it for forward estimates. My guess is that trend line is closer to $75-$100mm/qtr... which would be $300-$400mm annually and 20 to 40 cents in earnings. That is a big range but: 3x $300mm revs = $900mm + $1.1b cash = $2b = $7 per share which implies PE range of 20 to 30x, depending on your margin assumption... It seems like today's price is as attractive as when it IPO'd but the end markets were pre-boom then. Looks like its getting very interesting since this company is very likely to survive... It looks