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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (2205)	9/27/2001 5:15:20 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Good call Iso, RE the Deflationary Scenario. US too big to fail so it's not too big to PUMP! But, I am NOT too big to fail, or at least not too good to GOOF, ggg, the smaller retrace in the golds than I called for in my TA, where I anticipated a pull back to HUI 64, evidently was a goof. The fact remains that the lack of a substantial pullback here, where one was anticipated TA wise, should prove quite bullish, stair step style. In Energy, this time I was to distracted to flee in time. A foray of a few days into energy stocks has turned into a painful knife catching exercise. Most are incredible values, but that was in a pre TEOTWTCAWKI world, so will have to apply first aid to the positions for awhile to stem the blood flow. I want to make sure I am there to catch them, whenever it happens, but Value Babies get thrown out with the bath water too! This market is a Mack Truck driven by a HazMat licensed Thuggee. Best Regards, Roebear

To: isopatch who wrote (2205)	9/27/2001 8:54:11 AM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

iso, I'm not sure everything has changed. What has changed is the velocity of change. As I watched the action on PD yesterday, it's clear that there are two divergent investment theses at work. What I suspect is that only the variable of time separates the two. Clearly a deflationary cycle can play havoc with industrial metals. Both consumption and forward pricing will dry up and metals go into backwardation with no incentive to buy/price more than the bare minimum. Consumers will want consignment terms that don't price in some cases until after consumption. A generally lousy situation for an industry which will be followe by production cutbacks. But, the question I ask is will the cure be worse than the illness. Greenspans suggestion that a 100 billion fiscal stimulus package be considered is nothin' if it ain't inflationary. For this pillar of the Whip Inflation Now community to suggest such makes me think that inside Alan's restrained exterior lies a wild eyed scared shitless kinda guy. When that happens, you'll have a fiscally stimulated demand with an increasing contango. I'd be watching those spreads for clues on metals investments. mt