Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chaz who wrote (47162)	9/27/2001 8:54:19 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

hi chaz, has this thread been so bullish that we wouldn't have entertained the notion of a coming decline, even if someone had presented it to us in a creditable manner???? IOW, have we learned anything? I'm not sure I have, because I sure didn't see it coming, and I wouldn't have known where to look (for signs of it coming) anyway people did present information here from time to time. typically, these were not thread regulars, which makes sense, since the viewpoint would be different from the one prevailing here. however, such people were typically attacked or ignored. which is also not surprising. this discouraged the presentation of further information, since prospective presenters probably did not want more negative reactions. all IMHO

To: chaz who wrote (47162)	9/27/2001 9:30:50 AM
From: Judith Williams	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Chaz-- GG versus capital preservation I thought--until the last year and a half--that these two were synonymous. Although tech has been sent to the woodshed but good, there is an underlying notion on the thread that technology may be cyclical, but it is core to our financial strength and future development. We now face a "terror tax" stretching indeterminately into the future. Any thoughts on its implications for the "cycle," recovery, or growth patterns? Judith

To: chaz who wrote (47162)	9/27/2001 10:17:45 AM
From: TigerPaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

In the first week of the new millenium my wife and I made an inventory of what we own. Chairs, dishes, forks, and stocks. That had to be the highwater mark of the market. I knew the market was too high and my arm was sore from patting myself on the back for outguessing the beans and bullet investors as to the effect of the millenium. I had slowly but significantly shifted my portfolio such that most of the stocks that I owned for a long time were sold and my new portfolio makeup was purchased at the highest of prices. I fully expected about a 20% decline and made the conscience decision to wait it out. I watched the 20% decline in my more volatile stocks (A few losses were expected to be applied to capital gains), then I watched them continue to decline as my blue chips began to decline. I was so convinced that they were oversold at that point that I wasn't about to dump them at the bottom. I even made margin purchases of some real bargins. As declines continued I made the nearest thing to getting out, I sold enough to pay off my margin (Making some bad tax mistakes in the process so more sales were made to square up the tax accounts) All through it I kept the stocks which benefited from the the new paradigm, that communication would become more important than transportation. That paradigm is no longer operative, I am sure it will be back in time, but right now the foundation that made stocks that I considered gorillas to be gorillas is missing. I still hold them because I think they will improve eventually, and because they were for the most part purchased at the top of the bubble I cannot take a tax loss on any more than $3000 at a time. I figure I may not pay another capital gain tax for the rest of my life. Most of all, I think the communication paradigm will re-emerge. What I don't know is whether the advantages that made me think some of the companies were gorillas will still be valid by then. In the mean time my source of investment funds is no longer sales of split speculation, or massive margin mussle, it's that little bit of steady directly deposited paycheck fractions that had been getting lost in the noise a few years ago. TP

To: chaz who wrote (47162)	9/27/2001 11:29:04 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I have no problem with the notion of the GG, but capital preservation seems not to be what we talk about here. I am bothered by that, because the whole idea of playing the GG is to make money. Later losing it shouldn't be part of the fun. I really do feel we ought to have some sort of plausible exit strategy to preserve our winnings. Even in the wake of the big bubble burst, one could make the argument that long term the only exit strategy we need is when to sell the gorilla because the reasons for owning it have changed. Anything else is market timing. One rather hopes there is some middle ground, but, if you bought 2-3 years ago and held until 2-3 years from now, are you sure that you would feel the same need to jump in and out?

To: chaz who wrote (47162)	9/27/2001 3:44:21 PM
From: freeus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I have wondered...has this thread been so bullish that we wouldn't have entertained the notion of a coming decline, even if someone had presented it to us in a creditable manner???? IOW, have we learned anything? I'm not sure I have, because I sure didn't see it coming, and I wouldn't have known where to look (for signs of it coming) anyway. This thread was DEFINITELY so bullish that we wouldn't have entertained the notion of a coming decline. I had a plan to go to cash on the first day of the trading year in 2000 (I had even taken off work to do just that).But except for Mike Buckley who made it clear it was wise to take out a few years worth of income (I think he said 10) everyone else said that was market timing. A couple of weeks into January when my portfolio had taken some hits but not badly Bob Brinker who I listen to fairly regularly on the radio announced it was time to get out of equities because the economy was about to slow down and might go into recession. I still didn't do anything. Finally my own service in mid March said to get out. I called and talked to Frank who gave me all those mottos about "if you can't watch your stocks go down 50%" etc. Actually it's true I SHOULD'T have been in the market anymore, none of us should have! Anyway we were certainly too bullish to see the evidence. All those rate increases alone should have made us stop and think. Those astounding gains should have made us at least take some cash out. I also have enough losses for the rest of my life...unless I make really big money again which I sincerely doubt will happen, the IRS once again has the last laugh on me. Freeus Good post though! Frankly I doubt that the stocks that lead the next bull market will be the ones we owned before. But we'll see. Do you really think there will be another bull in our lifetime?