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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (45572)	9/27/2001 10:25:44 AM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

... desperation on Wall Street ... the guest host on CNBC earlier today had panic in his eyes, voice and words ... he wants the Fed to lower rates .50 next week with another .50 before the end of the year ... that would mean 100 basis points of cuts in 15 days (50 on September 17 and 50 on October 2) ... if the Fed is the major hope to straighten out equities in the short term, look out below ... what have all the previous cuts in 2001 done to help equities? ... ... I sincerely believe that the lack of an economic recovery for at least the next two or three quarters is not yet priced into equities ... at this point, I am most concerned about companies reporting earnings in the next four weeks, not what they will report for Q3, but what they are very likely to say about Q4, and Q1 and Q2 of next year ... ... one area I believe to be particularly dangerous are all the semiconductor and semi-equipment stocks ... it looks to me like the SOX Index is likely to drop as much as 50%, which it would have to do to get to its 1998 lows ... ... on a positive note, I do think that the worst will be over by the end of this year, so I think that buying stocks in January will probably be pretty good timing ... even so, equity prices are likely to stagnate for a lengthy period before the next bull market begins, so there is no real rush to jump in ... Ken Wilson