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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry in Omaha who wrote (331)	10/3/2001 5:39:42 AM
From: JAPG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

Jerry: Hubbert´s peak, scary but IMHO very real indeed. Recent serious studies support Hubbert´s theory: dieoff.org However, I don´t think that the world will evolve, in a 10 year´s period after the peak, to the production and consumption of renewable fuels. Much to my dislike, the fossil hydrocarbons orgy will continue for quite some time: - Natural gas will be used in greater quantities as a fuel. Also, it will be liquified (probably as methanol) to support the automobile industry. - Heavy crude (so called unconventional reserves) will start to be exploited. See in above article the mention to the Orinoco tar belt. Why I think this will happen: Because the ecosystem forces are too large: - Oil companies have vested interests in the continued used of hydrocarbons. - Countries that possess the hydrocarbon reservois are glad and willing to sell it. - Natural gas and heavy oil will still be cheaper than renewable sources - Our modern society has cheap energy as one of its main pillars. We are thinking how the stock market is going to look next month!, never mind thinking 3 generations down the road. Nevertheless, Hubbert´s peak is a very valuable intellectual tool to position ourselves in the long term. It will help us to evaluate things like: Where do I want to live 10 years from now?, what type of home should I build? (the kind of energy-efficient home you want to live in is not being built today), what kind of investments will thrive under Hubbert´s peak scenario?. The good news is that at today´s oil prices we seem to have time to reflect on this issue carefully. But reflect we should. Take care JAPG