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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (8827)9/27/2001 1:12:42 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 57684
 
<<Bought Ariba @ 1.54>>

Not much downside with that price <G>....I remember when folks were lining up to buy ARBA at $154/share. I'll stay on the sidelines for now. Most of my buying may be done late in the year or in Q1 2002.

Best Regards,

Scott



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (8827)9/27/2001 1:46:43 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 57684
 
Exodus Files Chapter 11, to Close 10 Data Centers

September 27, 2001

From Bloomberg News

WILMINGTON, Del. -- Exodus Communications Inc., which never made a profit since it went public in March 1998, filed for bankruptcy protection after losing customers in the collapsing Internet economy.

Exodus, which runs 44 Internet data centers on four continents, listed $5.98 billion in assets and $4.44 billion in debts in Chapter 11 papers filed Wednesday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware. The company operates so-called server farms that provide Web site services for businesses.

The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company's losses increased more than tenfold in the second quarter, and it fired workers as it failed to win new contracts fast enough to replace those it lost. Exodus counted Yahoo Inc. and AMR Corp.'s American Airlines among its customers. "They had no choice," said Ken Turek, senior money manager at Northern Trust Corp., of the bankruptcy decision.

Turek, whose company sold Exodus shares this year, said the "writing was on the wall" when Director L. William Krause replaced Chief Executive Ellen Hancock, a former IBM Corp. executive who quit Sept. 4.

In an interview, Krause said that although Exodus would consider a buyout offer, the company's plan is to reorganize independently and pay creditors with new shares. Exodus will close 10 data centers that were under construction, fire more employees and focus on existing customers in its bid to turn a profit, he said.

"We're getting close to the size we need to be, but we're not there yet," Krause said.

Exodus has arranged a $200-million bankruptcy credit line from General Electric Co.'s GE Capital unit to fund operations, the company said in a statement. "We are confident our suppliers will continue to support us," Krause said.

A Bankruptcy Court hearing will be held Wednesday to consider approval of the credit line, said J. Gregory Milmoe, a New York attorney representing Exodus.

More Debt Than Firm Could Handle

Trading in Exodus shares was halted before the markets opened Wednesday. The shares fell 33 cents to 17 cents Tuesday and have plunged 99% from a record $89.81 in March 2000. The Nasdaq Stock Market said shares will resume trading when Exodus satisfies a request for more information.

Analysts say Exodus, with eight different junk bond offerings totaling about $3.4 billion, ran up more debt than it could handle.

"Management over-leveraged the company and it's their fault," said Cary Robinson, an analyst at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, who rates Exodus shares "neutral" and doesn't own them. "That's why they all got fired."

The bankruptcy filing lets Exodus escape $75 million to $80 million in quarterly interest payments on the bonds, Krause said. HSBC Bank USA, representing six different groups of bondholders, is listed in court papers as Exodus' largest unsecured creditor.

With a weaker economy that may have tipped into a recession after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S., corporations have reduced spending on technology, Internet start-ups have failed and many customers have decided to save money by managing their own Web sites.

"We sacrificed profitability in exchange for growth and market share, over-expanding in some areas in advance of demand, not anticipating the decline as the dot-com bubble burst and the economy weakened," Krause said.

Exodus' second-quarter loss grew on acquisition and restructuring costs to $583.4 million, or $1.05 a share, from $51.8 million, or 13 cents, a year earlier.

Sales rose 79% to $318.7 million but missed analyst estimates. The company lost $256 million on sales of $818.4 million in 2000.

Corporate Credit Ratings Lowered

In June, Exodus slashed its cash flow forecast for the second half of the year to $80 million from $270 million. The move led Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service to cut Exodus' corporate credit ratings. Standard & Poor's on Wednesday lowered Exodus' credit ratings to "D."

Businesses that don't want to maintain their own equipment or manage their own Web sites hire Exodus. The company's data centers occupy 5.1 million square feet to house server computers with software and network links.

Exodus acquired Global Crossing Ltd.'s GlobalCenter unit in January for $1.91 billion in stock, giving the company new centers in New York and Amsterdam.

Global Crossing, which operates a worldwide phone and data-transmission network, was the biggest Exodus shareholder as of June 30, with a 19% stake, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The Bermuda-based company remains Exodus' top shareholder, according to Wednesday's court filing.

Global Crossing shares, which have plunged more than 81% this year, fell 54 cents to $2.41 on the New York Stock Exchange.



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (8827)9/27/2001 2:20:25 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57684
 
From David Tice, notorious short fund manager...

Q & A at Marketwatch:

Going long wouldn't be Prudent
Tice steers bear fund to big gains; sees decade-long stall

By Justin Wiser, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 1:00 PM ET Sept. 27, 2001

DALLAS (CBS.MW) - Most fund managers have struggled year-to-date, but David Tice has had no problem picking stocks -- to short, that is.

Tice's Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX: news, chart, profile) is up 36 percent this year, thanks to winning bets on plummeting technology shares. The fund gained 73 percent over the past 12 months, a full 100 percentage points ahead of the flagging S&P 500.

While stocks already have been hammered, Tice said he expects them to fall still further because of continued high valuations and a weak economy.

"The market overall is still very expensive," said Tice, who has about two-thirds of the $190 million Prudent Bear fund in shorts and 18 percent in long positions.

Most bear funds short against broad stock indexes, but a few managers like Tice target individual securities. In either case, advisors recommend investing in short funds only as a hedge against a long portfolio.

Bear funds will suffer in a bull market, as evidenced in the late '90s run. The Prudent Bear Fund lost 3.7 percent per year over the last five years on an annualized basis.

CBS.MarketWatch.com spoke with Tice about his strategy and his current assessment of the investing landscape.

Q. How do you find stocks to short -- is this primarily a valuation measure?

We are looking at valuation, but we're also looking for cases where we know something that other people don't know, something that's not being considered in the stock price.

An example would be when inventory is picking up much more at one company than for its peers -- when one company is crashing because of a slowdown in demand and the other stocks in the group are holding up. Or when we see the consumer starting to slow down, yet companies like Starbucks (SBUX: news, chart, profile) are still selling at high levels, only slightly off their highs.

Or when sales growth slows, companies might benefit from cutting back on R&D and general and administrative expenses in order to meet targets.

Q. What are some of the sectors you believe are still selling at lofty valuations?

We're still very negative on semiconductors. We think the valuations are still very high. The stocks are down quite a bit, but we don't think there's a recovery any time soon. PCs, cell-phones and telecom infrastructure are all disastrous -- there's way too much capacity and pricing will continue to come down.

Q. What about the market as a whole -- is it still overvalued?

The S&P is selling at 33 times earnings, and there's been some charges in those earnings. The top 40 companies in the Nasdaq 100 are still selling at an aggregate of seven times sales. Seven times sales is a huge number. It's not unusual in a recession for companies to sell at seven times earnings. Seven times sales is just a joke. It's very, very, very high.

Q. What would be a reasonable level for the Nasdaq then?

One times sales.

Q. So you don't see much relief from the sell-off we've had over the past few weeks?

No. The problem is everyone just thinks "Well, these companies are down a lot from their highs and this is a great company, so we should buy it." People don't do any research.

Look at the top companies in the Nasdaq 100. First we have Microsoft (MSFT: news, chart, profile) -- a great company, but it's selling at 29 times earnings and they actually had down earnings for the first quarter. We think with PCs slowing down, and the fact that Windows XP, their new product, has not been a barn-burner, this company could sell in a recession at 15 times earnings.

Q. Are you finding a lot of technology companies that just aren't earning any money?

There are tons and tons of companies we're short that are losing money, that are earning very poor returns on capital. RF Micro Devices (RFMD: news, chart, profile) is selling at 11 times sales and it's lost money the last two quarters. Even at the peak it earned a 10 percent return on equity and 8 percent on capital. That's a miserable rate of return. That's practically what you could get from a tax-exempt municipal bond a couple of years ago. There are also some competitors coming along that people aren't considering. They're buying it because it's down from its high.

Q. Yet others managers will argue that we're oversold. They point to technical factors, like a high put-to-call ratio and a rising VIX or volatility index, as being bullish.

We are oversold, but a lot of the technicians' work is done based on the last 18 years of a bull market. This is a secular bear market. In a secular bull market, when the market gets oversold you can generally buy and you get a bounce. In a secular bear market, stocks can stay oversold for a long time. But everybody is looking at what applied over the last 18 years. Now things are different. Yes, we could get a bounce, but in a bear market you generally want to sell into rallies rather than buying them.

Q. But what about the eight interest rate cuts we've had -- those are bound to kick in at some point aren't they?

No, they're not, because the rates work in a cyclical inventory recession. They don't work in a bubble aftermath. There are only two economies that were similar to this economy -- one was the 1929 U.S. economy and the second was the 1990 Japanese economy. Those were both bubble aftermaths with massive capital investment, massive asset bubbles, and massive credit growth. Both of those ended with the central bank cutting rates time after time after time, and the market just went lower and lower and lower.

Q. So you see this going on for quite a while?

A decade. I think the market could be flat for 10 years"

He's got to be kidding!!!

-Scott



To: Bill Harmond who wrote (8827)9/27/2001 3:48:09 PM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 57684
 
Edit: Bought 7.5 tons of sons at an average of 2.42 The chance of a lifetime.And there is more soon....