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Pastimes : After The Dust Settles - (Finding Potential Bargins) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Jeff who wrote (1)	9/28/2001 12:38:32 AM
From: sammaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19

still think the dust wont settle for a while so ill just add my short till bankruptcy pick.. stn casino operator with huge debt load.... any ideas on which airline go bankrupt first?...sounds like an easy short to ride down if u pick the right one...

To: Dr. Jeff who wrote (1)	9/28/2001 9:57:46 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19

If you want a bloated pig retailer to short.... Check out Galyan's (GLYN). This is a 100k ft^2 big-box sporting goods retailer. They target the $75k and up consumer with mid-to-high-priced technical brands. 36% pre-tax ROI with half of the total cost of the store financed; that is truly pathetic. these boxes cost $16mm each to put up; they have their own climbing walls, batting cages, driving ranges, whatever; description from the company "A typical Galyan's store ranges from approximately 80,000 to 100,000 square feet and features a two-story glass facade, a 55-foot-high interior atrium, metal and timber appointments and interactive and entertaining elements, such as a rock-climbing wall." Two of the last three companies the CEO ran went bankrupt. Just what you want going into a recession; a $16mm box, targeting the high-end consumer w/ highly discretionary, expensive goods and high leverage. The returns sucked in the bubble; what will they look like in a post-bubble world? And a management team that doesn't exactly have a stellar track record w/ handling adversity. This is the single worst retail idea I have seen since Restoration Hardware (which is also terminal, but the stock is $2 so hardly worth it). Cheers