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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (53346)	9/28/2001 12:47:46 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

We have already seen a crash in NDX similar to the Great Crash. It's just that we're not in the soup lines like those days, so it hasn't made as big of a story. On the plus side, if we have not seen the bottom already, it cannot be more than 10~20% away. Nor should it take 10 years to go nowhere. Within 5 years of the Great Crash, the stock market went up nearly 5-fold (still only half of the peak). Given the stronger economic conditions (and barring any number of possible international disasters), we should do much better than our great grandfathers did. Two things to remember...(1) Both the K-Wave type theories and Harry Dent's demographic analysis have some very plausible points. So far they have both been accurate within a margin. And (2) the human nature and flow of events is just too unpredictable. That said, I can use the demographics to write some fascinating (and plausible) stories. The stock market would be the least of such worries in my book. ST

To: Paul V. who wrote (53346)	9/28/2001 1:09:35 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 70976

So you see this going on for quite a while? I am somewhat sceptical of the commonly held view that we will experience a V-shaped recovery next year, but I tend to be a contrarian. I think the market could be flat for 10 years I've never seen a flat market. He is only talking about starting levels and ending levels. Whether the Dow is still at 8823 in 10 years is highly unlikely IMO. I think it will probably be considerably higher. The bubble was mostly confined to a relatively small internet and telecom sector. This sector has already been devastated.