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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (132024)9/28/2001 4:33:09 PM
From: GST  Respond to of 164684
 
Glenn: thestreet.com



To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (132024)9/28/2001 5:26:05 PM
From: H James Morris  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Wednesday, September 20, 2000 one year ago
DLJ's Kiggen upbeat on YHOO
--10:43 am - By Tomi Kilgore
Yahoo (YHOO: news, msgs) is advancing $2.06 to
$110.19. Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette analsyt Jamie
Kiggen reiterated his "buy" rating on the stock, saying he
expects it to "break out of its current range" once third
quarter results are revealed on Oct. 10. Since the middle
of April, the stock has traded within a $150-$99.75
range. Kiggen believes Yahoo received an "excellent"
offer from Barnes & Noble.com (BNBN: news, msgs) to
become the premier book seller across Yahoo's Web
directories, one which Amazon declined to top. Kiggen
added, however, that it doesn't keep Amazon from
advertising Yahoo.
One year later.
>Rating: HOLD 12-Mo. Target: $10


Yahoo! reported solid Q2 results, with revenue of $182.2M (-33% y/y, +1% q/q), at the high end of the guidance range and $17.7M above our $164.5M estimate. EPS of $0.01 was above our consensus-matching $0.00 estimate. Online advertising was flat q/q, and Business Services was up 9% q/q.
Yahoo! indicated that although the online ad market appears to have stabilized, it doesn't expect a rebound until mid-2002. Guidance for 2H remains unchanged, with revenue in the $700M-$775M range and EPS of $0.02-$0.06. For YHOO to reach the high-end of the guided range implies an economic recovery. Q3 revenue guidance of $160M-$180M incorporates a slight sequential decline, reflecting seasonality in the ad market.

Yahoo! is making slow but measurable progress on its revenue diversification efforts, with Business Services contributing 18% of total revenue (+9% q/q to $33M), with Premium Services being the primary growth driver in this line (although much of the revenue here is from the Stores platform and other commercial services). Questions remain about the size and take-rate of consumer-oriented premium services.

We're leaving our 2H and 2002 estimates unchanged and are adjusting the model to reflect the Q2 upside, so our FY2001 revenue is $723.3M (-35% y/y), up from $705.6M, while EPS remains unchanged $0.04. Our 2002 estimates are for revenue of $846.7M (+17% y/y) and EPS of $0.15.

While there should be a relief rally in the stock near-term given its recent weakness, we expect YHOO to trade in a range of $15-$20 over the next several months. At $20, YHOO is pricing in 25%+ growth expectations for next year and beyond. Maintain Hold rating, given valuation and lack of visibility on growth re-acceleration