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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pete Young who wrote (94261)	10/2/2001 9:51:32 AM
From: Terry D	Respond to of 95453

Fred Leuffer - Oil/Domestic & International $20 Oil--Now What? Last Week, oil prices fell to $20/bbl (WTI Spot) -- a level we consider closer to the normal range. We believe that the stage already was set for a sharp decline in oil prices. The consequences of terrorist attacks are likely to hasten and possibly exacerbate the price correction. We believe oil prices are headed lower. We project the call on OPEC oil to fall by as much as 1.8 million b/d in 2002, as world oil demand falls and non-OPEC production continues to grow. OPEC’s share of world oil production is estimated at 35%, the lowest level since 1989. OPEC’s capacity utilization rate could fall to 77% in 2002. Political pressure also will work to keep supplies plentiful. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for U.S. allies within OPEC to cut production. We continue to estimate an average WTI spot price of $18/bbl for 2002. For the first time in months, we believe certain major oil and refining stocks offer good value, but it may be too early to buy. Most stocks have fallen to the low end of our projected trading ranges. However, we expect earnings estimates to be cut, and history has demonstrated that it is difficult to make money in oil stocks when oil prices are falling. We favor large-cap companies with strong balance sheets such as Buy-rated Royal Dutch/Shell (RD/SC) and Chevron (CHV). A new report now available.

To: Pete Young who wrote (94261)	10/3/2001 5:32:53 PM
From: reid brandon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Nice post, Pete! Another translation: We are certain you fools will sell your shares, weak hands in panic times are good prey for those who have long term vision such as we brokers who accumulate for wealth. A real investor is a contrarian. Go against the crowd. Oil prices will rise again. You can bank on that happening as the economy recovers and all the airlines are flying again and the big gas guzzling vehicles (Excursions, Explorers, Suburbans, SUV's etc) hit the roads. Looking at past news announcements for BJ Services over the past 60 days you can see how they jerk investors around: Sept. 18 downgrade by JP Morgan Aug 16 upgrade by Morgan Stanley July 25 upgrade by JP Morgan July 23 downgrade by Salomon Smith Barney July 23 upgrade by UBS Warburg Buying on the dips. Reid. What's an investor to do? Buy low and sell high.