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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SirRealist who wrote (1727)	9/28/2001 6:04:25 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Possibly, Afghanistan will be divided into two or three regions, not unlike Yugoslavia. Hmmm... possibly... I think it highly unlikely. Nothing would be worse politically for the US, than to have the world claiming the US was responsible for the partioning and occupation of Afghanistan by its hostile neighbors. The country must remain intact and a stable and moderate government place in power until such time that economic development and political reforms instituted. Thus, I find the scenario of reinstalling Zahir Shah upon his throne and forming the basis of a parliamentarian government (which requires strong coalitions being formed among the very tribal leaderships for policies to be implemented) as the game plan. Of course, political liberalism won't occur for several years and the King will likely require strong backing from the UN and peace-keeping forces (non-US), but I believe that would be the strategy we'll see pursued. But none of us really can know how this is going to play out. There are just too many variables. Hawkmoon