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To: SecularBull who wrote (187801)	9/29/2001 12:41:14 PM
From: Don Pueblo	Respond to of 769670

It all depends on where the medium-term and long-term bottoms form up on the COMPX and the DJIA. Personally, I missed the call on the COMPX lower low from April until right before we hit it in late August, so my opinion on this should be taken 'with a grain of salt'. I was pretty convinced that the April low would not get taken out. I was wrong. I have a friend that was right, and he thinks we are going lower in the next 12 months. I believe we are close to a medium-term and long-term bottom on the COMP. I see platinum at or near a long-term bottom. I see the same with copper and the S&P futures. Consumer spending has remain where it is and not get any worse - that's the only wild card I see. Medium-term resistance on the COMP is 1889. For a good bottom chart formation to form up, we'll have to get back up to around 1649 and not take out 1387. This is what I think is going to happen. However, it is quite possible that a new low on the COMP might happen. If so, it would be a buying opportunity medium-term (6-12 months) and long-term. I'm looking for a move back up to around 2400 within 6-12 months. On the DJIA, I see a move back above 9000 in the short-term. Unfortunately, I don't have any buy signals formed on the index for the medium-term and long-term, so it's a real tough call right now on the DJIA. There is very strong support at 8000, so I would look for the index to flatten out between those two points, at around 8500. The key to predicting the next 12 months is the DJIA. It has remained much stronger than the COMPX. If it fails and breaks below 8000, I'll have to look at it closely and see if I can make a judgement about direction at that time. A break below 8000 would be very, very bearish. I personally don't see much value in the banks and brokerage firms going out 12 months. Same with retail and entertainment. I see some great values long-term on the good tech stocks right now. If the COMPX takes out a new low within the next 90 days, I will be buying tech stocks for 6-24 month hold.