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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OZ who wrote (47277)	9/29/2001 5:58:13 PM
From: RobertHChaney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Good analysis OZ. The way I think about it is that he has often bought or held in industries which the market had irrationally decided were weak on a "secular" basis. I have watched this phenomenon happen before in several cyclical industries like energy, real estate, etc. It is usually a significant sign of a possible market top or bottom - when the market paints a cyclical business as being secularly great (think energy 1981 or tech early 2000), or secularly bad (like NYC real estate in mid-late 1970's or energy in the mid-late 1980's). Unfortunately, I continue to see most experts forecasting a nice "V" shaped cyclical recovery in tech. I think that you will probably see tech widely proclaimed as being in a secular slump before this is all over, which would most likely cause a strong readjustment of stock multiples. There is no certainty of this, just my best analysis of how it will play out. Robert