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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (10476)	9/30/2001 12:22:05 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay - sounds like Hawaii is a really good deal right now. I've already booked tickets to fly to New Orleans for Christmas - on United - direct flight, no interconnections, only $231 per ticket round trip. That's not a fabulous deal for other times of year, nor is it great for flights with stop-overs, but it's great for the season and the non-stop. The California sister is coming in, too, so we just need to get the brother to fly in from Arizona and we've got everyone. Planning to go see the 95-year-old aunt in Biloxi. Hawaii is too far for a short trip but I am looking into Florida for Thanksgiving. We paid $1.19 for gas yesterday in Warrenton. I haven't seen it that low in years. We went for a drive, had lunch at a country style restaurant (the H likes salty Virginia country ham), bought some apples at a roadside stand, and looked at the turning leaves. Next week we will drive to a pick-your-own apple place and pick some antique varieties of apples, which were not ready yet. And in October I am going to Philadelphia for a conference. Doing my part to keep the wheels of the economy turning. I don't know when or if the economy will turn around, but I've seen a couple of things that make me want to start DCA very carefully - a Taiwanese chipmaker said they were getting orders - no link, sorry, and also, commercial paper outstandings seem to be starting to turn around. That's a component of what people used to think of as real money. Despite all the interest rate cuts and coupon passes since December, 2000, commercial paper outstandings kept plummeting until recently. This could just be a blip, just passing it on FWIW. I have also seen some help wanted signs in a few stores. Almost to the bottom of the page on this link is the graph for commercial paper outstandings: federalreserve.gov

To: TobagoJack who wrote (10476)	9/30/2001 1:45:28 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Re your musings on investing in these times, Jay. I assume you answered with the recovery scenario in your mind. However, I still see one boom happening and its real estate/M3 bubble. That US M3 grew at 40+% annualized lately is a bad, bad sign - I see AG doing a rain dance around the US economy engine, oil cans in both hands, and the damn machine just does not mind his voodoo. Blaming the troubles on WTC catastrophe would be just a short-sighted scapegoating spin. So...there's a bust waiting or possibly already happening. The US GDP results for instance were better than expected for a wrong reason: imports fell more than expected. So if your suggestions mean acting under the recovery sunshine - well...The rain season of earning announcements is htting our shores next week. What I seem to see happening across the board, is decreases in cash flows (tourism, REITs, transport, financials, retail down, fun/entertainment, essentials up). But then again, this is under the Bust scenario. Let us all pray for a nice fat recovery. I dont think there's anything else one can do. dj

To: TobagoJack who wrote (10476)	9/30/2001 5:22:05 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, To further flesh out those thoughts from days not so long ago, I take a moment to embellish. Those involved in holy war against western civilization will not stop with the crippling of the US, but will continue to strike out at other centers of civilization, including Hong Kong, Singapore and Brazil. Perhaps simultaneously, perhaps in turn. If not nipped in the bud, hope of a decent future for future generations will be impaired by the destruction wrought. It's even possible that the plague known as human kind could be wiped from the face of the earth, as population levels drop below that capable of sustaining that life form. Thought to be a risk prior to the 18th century- when mankind's numbers were smaller and events such as the plague or the pandemic of 1919 wiped out masses of people, often the most productive people, seemingly at random. Yes, without western civilization, it's quite likely that vaccinations and medical care could disappear, or become so rare as to return humanity to that brink. Perhaps such an outcome would benefit the ecology in whole. It certainly would be the bane of any individual, capitalistic or not. Therefore my call to arms- directed at you, but aimed for all people who want to see a brighter future, preferably one where martial law is not the rule of the day. Pleasure from today cannot be taken from us tomorrow- may in fact succor us during times of trial. Only the potentials the future can hold may be taken. So it makes some sense to enjoy one another, and the beauty inherent in much of that which our world contains. As we take back that future which rightfully belongs to mankind from those who embrace destruction as a means to an end. Respectfully submitted, links stanford.edu nickbostrom.com dieoff.org

To: TobagoJack who wrote (10476)	10/1/2001 4:49:05 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello, Jay. Did you ever nibble on GX? I'm considering it more than ever. I don't see how it can be beaten up any more than it has already. Only place to go is up. A real value play, provided that it can avoid bankruptcy. I'm getting ready to bet that it can.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (10476)	10/23/2002 1:04:19 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, Your post (dated Sept 30, 2001) ... QUOTE CB’s topic, >>Assuming, for the sake of discussion, that the economy was in the process of turning around, what stocks would you invest in?<< I do not know, but have some random thoughts, backed by no conviction at the moment (I am assuming something else will go wrong, be they tax sales, another terror attack, financial accident, more firings resulting in seizing up of consumer spending, whatever) … with some equities aggregated starting now, and some later, at lower still prices … assuming less dependency on ME oil, economic recovery, some trends … Cendent – asset free ride on economic recovery, corporate recovery; Energy infrastructure plays – GE, ABB, and eventually, even Enron, assuming electricity and electrical and gas transmission will go in some way to ease dependency on the ME; Oil service plays (Halliburton, Schlumber whatever); Financial services (American Express, MSDW, Merrill Lynch, Citi Corp); Paired trade on long China vs. short Japan/Korean steel companies; Paired trade of continental (i.e. Marriott) vs island resorts (i.e. Club Med) - long continental, short island, followed by reverse of paired trade; Buy stronger airline starting now, and unwind at first profit; Other transport companies, when anticipating recovery; REITs – Newhall Land for gated and planned communities under nice sun and Catellus Property owning Bay Area wharf properties, and Castle & Cook Properties (?) owning Lanai and other Hawaiian properties; Insurance companies, starting with a little of AIG now; Walmart, Gap, popular retailers, and some luxury goods dealers like Tiffany and such; Age care - ?; Entertainment companies – AOL Time Warner, Vivendi; and Information infrastructure companies – ATT wireless, SBC, Comcast, QCOM (yes, Maurice, soon I will buy even this!), MSFT, etc. ... Like I said earlier, random thoughts backed by zip conviction at this moment. UNQUOTE It is very good that you trusted your lack of conviction, else you would have been turned into a road pizza. Chugs, Jay