To: Lucretius who wrote (126412 ) 9/30/2001 11:15:13 AM From: Tommaso Respond to of 436258 Yes, I have been looking at that. In the period 1970-1980 we had episodes of inflationary recession, and it can happen again. Maybe I can think my way through this. The government provides U. S. citizens with huge amounts of credit and a huge expansion in the money supply. But because the stock market is down, because people are losing jobs, and because of uneasiness about all sorts of things, people become too cautious to spend much. Meantime commodities and goods continue to be manufactured, but not many people are buying. The production doesn't sell well, so prices are cut and more layoffs and cutbacks in production occur. Everything stagnates somewhat above subsistence level, of course. Now that sounds like Japan, doesn't it? But the United States does not go in for passive submission to economic processes. So what happens? Well, maybe a lot of spending to make our transportation systems more secure. Maybe renewed defense spending--a sure way to absorb excess production. I would love to see a network of brand-new TGV-type trains, which are faster, safer, and a lot more secure than airlines over distances up to 500 miles from city center to city center. From the news summary this morning about the terrorists, it sounds as if all they got in the way of support (and who knows from whom, and how) was about $500,000--that it was almost entirely a plot of a couple of dozen young men living within the United States and using easily available services and resources. Sounds like to me that security measures such as practiced by the Israelis would have totally defeated them. But I am afraid that the real outcome is going to be some kind of war, which would do nothing to prevent further acts of terrorism. A lot of crazy people in the world can come up with $500,000. So I come back around to the graph of the growth of MZM, and remember Hemingway's remark which I think occurs in "A Farewell to Arms," but I am not sure: That when governments get into trouble, first they inflate the currency, and when that does not work, they start a war. I hope that Hemingway was too cynical.