To: tech101 who wrote (1131 ) 9/30/2001 1:56:04 PM From: tech101 Respond to of 2772 How To Save Our Economy The unfulfilled expectation to the Internet and so called new economy created the dot-com bubbles and the implosion of the bubbles rocks the economy. However, the dot-bombs are nothing compared to the disastrous situation faced by our telecommunication industry that is dragging our economy into recession. What’s wrong with our telecommunication industry? What’s wrong with our economy? The Fed has reduced the interest rate eight times in a row, but the economy has not been responding so far. People have started asking how low the interest can go. Is the Japanese economical situation that has lingered for more than a decade the prologue of ours? Everyone blames the situation to overestimated bandwidth demand and overcapacity. But why people overestimated the demand and what holds bandwidth demand? The answer becomes more and more clear by now -- the demands are there and the "killer applications" are ready, but the “last mile” that connects our residences to the ISPs holds the growth of our telecommunications and high tech industry, thus our economy. It is ironic that among 100.2 million American’s family, only 1.5 million had DSL modem in 2000 (Source: the Yankee Group), and only about 8% of US home vs. as many as 66% of Korean homes may now have broadband Internet access according to Verizon and recent reports from the US Embassy in Seoul. People are talking about building a national fiber optic network to fill the unused dark fibers underground and pull our economy from recession just like the government did in the 30’s with the national interstate highway project, which was partially responsible in restoring our economy from the Great Depression. However, a government sponsored nationwide fiber network probably won’t happen unless our economy fell into that disastrous situation. Actually, the urgent thing we need this time is to break up the Last Mile connection -- the RBOCs’ “central offices” facilities and the Cable companies’ head-end offices, both provide residences access to the voice, data, and video networks -- from the local telephone companies, who had put DSL technology on the shelf to maximize the profit from T1 service for a decade until CLEC started the competition (and then killed almost all the CLECs except a few) as well as cable services providers. This way, the two access organizations can freely and fairly compete each other, along with other last mile technology including wireless and satellite, to offer unbiased services to whomever in the need. They would also have all the incentives to upgrade their equipment, technologies, and services. As all we know that “most of the network outside our homes is already broadband-enabled. The fact that most of us still use the “narrowband” dial-up connection with a maximum data transmission speed of 56 kilobytes per second at home has caused a huge shortfall in business for many telecom and technology companies and great disappointment for investors. Indeed, virtually every company in the technology and telecommunications sectors has seen its business undermined by the unexpectedly slow adoption of residential broadband Internet access. With the last mile bottleneck removed, the residential high-speed broadband Internet access - the business factor that has been causing so many shattered dreams in tech-land” (Ethan Hugo, The Last, And Longest Mile, May 29, 2001, Wall Street Journal dlbabson.com – will become a reality. The Internet can become a multimedia platform capable of full-motion video on demand, full-scale software downloads, videoconferences and interactive video games, just to name a few. And all of our underground dark fibers will light up, and our economy will enjoy another long-lasting boom time with the demands growing on related infrastructures, contents, software applications and services without Fed’s further cutting interest, let alone extra penny of tax payers money. According to a recent Brookings Institution report if only the broadband rollout were moving faster, the widespread broadband service would add up to $500 billion to the U.S. economy each year thanks to reduced commuting, more efficient commerce and sales of everything from entertainment to health care. “Even if just half of Americans had access to broadband at home, the study said, America's economy would grow by an extra $200 billion annually. That doesn't even include a $50 billion to $100 billion in spending on computer products.”