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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (4752)	9/30/2001 8:02:38 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 33421

US and Britain to strike terror camps within days Attacks limited to targets found by special forces War on Terrorism - Observer special Ed Vulliamy, Washington, Jason Burke, Peshawar, Peter Beaumont and Paul Beaver Sunday September 30, 2001 The Observer Devastating attacks on bases controlled by Osama bin Laden are set to be launched in the next 48 hours as part of a tightly focused military operation approved by US President George Bush and backed by Britain. The strategy, which is a victory for pragmatists in both Britain and America, is designed to kill bin Laden and his forces, and will be launched in tandem with strikes against air and ground forces of the Taliban regime supporting him. more.... observer.co.uk

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (4752)	9/30/2001 9:26:49 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 33421

I agree with much of what you state Zebra.... There will be additional costs involved in creating redundancy and security to critical infrastructures. And these costs will impact earnings as well. Of course, it could set up a round of acquisitions as larger companies seek to purchase redundancy through merger some of the excess capacity into their operations. Also, I expect a certain amount of expenditures on IT data centers as they are forced to expand to provide the redundancy that was lacking before. Already, certain governmental agencies were made ACUTELY aware of how vulnerable their operations had become through their centralization and consolidation efforts. As for the security stocks: Do they justify the rapid increase in their prices regardless (in some cases of their lack of earnings)? Not at this point. However, I'm of the mind that many of the companies you identified, especially the facial identification, biometric, and explosives detection companies will see a short to intermediate increase in orders that may continue to the long-term. The Feds will be taking over security and only the government will have the resources necessary to implement these systems on the scale required. Until that responsibility for security is officially shifted to the government, these companies can be considered overvalued. Personally, I think INVN may try to make another run to break out above the gap up it achieved on the first day of trading at the attack. But should it fail, it will consolidate around the 50dma around $5/share. (shorted it once at $11 and made some money, but it's risky due to potential contracts being expedited out of Europe). And the reason I believe we have seen the worst is because we have so many of these guys looking over their shoulders at the moment that they would be foolish to attempt something risky at the moment. But of course, Bin Laden is like an animal backed into a corner, with no where for he and his extended family of 4 wives and 50 children to go... So he may attempt to have his people retaliate, in order to provoke the US to launch a massive retaliatory strike that he hopes will stir up anti-US sentiment. But I think such an attack would backfire as the first one did. It would justify even greater aggressiveness against him, and I have no belief that Bin Laden wants to die so quickly for his god. So not provoking the US into moving into Afghanistan proper might be his wisest move. Another attack would further strengthen an already firming foundation of support internationally. So overall, I'm not particularly concerned about anything more than a nuisance attack, rather than a WMD massacre. And I hope that I'm proven correct. (knock on wood) Hawk