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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Puck who wrote (1404)10/1/2001 1:07:32 AM
From: slacker711  Respond to of 9255
 
you once posted that if you'd known last year in July that Nokia's GPRS phones wouldn't be introduced in 1H2001 that you would have sold all your shares right then and there. Perhaps you were exaggerating your feelings for effect, but I believe I had a reasonable case for interpreting your words as having a certain bitterness about them.

I absolutely would have sold my shares. You are confusing my discipline in my approach to investing with "bitterness".

At the time, Nokia's valuation discounted various items....including a GPRS launch during the first half of last year. I knew that the handset market as a whole was going to be dependent on this launch since most consumers had reached their limit on how small/cute their handset needed to be. The upgrade market was ready to fall apart without the launch of GPRS.

I also believed that Nokia's competition was beginning to catch up to them. I very rarely allow myself to own a company which is not the most innovative it's particular field. I am actually making an exception right now by continuing to hold Nokia.

I think the rest is history. The lack of GPRS handsets DID slow the upgrade market and cause overall handset demand to plummet. I think it is also safe to say that Nokia's competitors are now close to with them in terms of handset price/functionality. If Ericsson manages to launch the T68, they will be ahead of anything that Nokia currently has in the market.

Why do I still own Nokia? It is essentially a valuation play combined with a certain amount of trust in their management. If management can begin to execute as they have in the past, I believe that their will be a revival in the handset market next year. Color screens, Java and data will combine to make for the compelling upgrades that were missing this year. Hopefully, Nokia will be at the forefront rather than allowing themselves to be led by the likes of Ericsson/Motorola.

Slacker