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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (8879)	10/1/2001 4:35:49 AM
From: que seria	Respond to of 23153

Warp: I can see using the now-benchmark "risk-free" debt instrument, the 10 year Treasury, as the reference point for market valuation. Theory being you can always get that, so why buy stocks unless you can expect to do better? You note his chart conclusion: Bottom line, S&P500 currently undervalued by about 15%. I believe the consensus estimates for 2002 are quite unrealistic, discounting a recovery. I sure wouldn't use them to decide the market is now below fair value. If there is one thing I'll bet on in this market, it's that those estimates are coming down hard before the new year rings in. That'll be after firms have sold what they want to, adjusting to the current reality first and revising later. Of course some initial revisions have already come out. You also see that the technical analysis people at SSB and no doubt elsewhere, and economists like Roach at other houses, put out reality from the get-go. However, they don't contribute to the IBES analyst consensus. Caveat emptor!! I'm still willing to be putting the Naz well out of the money even on front month contracts. Not very expensive insurance if you plan to hold tech positions, as I do other than as tax loss selling dictates.