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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brendan W who wrote (13149)	10/2/2001 12:30:24 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78702

I've looked at LTD too. As an off-shoot of Mike Burry's IBI. I will just give that LTD is undervalued compared to its publicly traded holdings. The bottom line is that when one adds all the holdings one gets such-and-such aspects of LTD for free. All well and good for a value investor. On the other hand, prime retailers are down too. And they and LTD can still fall further. Or maybe some might recover better and quicker than LTD. I've kind of lost my logic on these retailers. Whereas in the past I'd say there's a margin of safety with LTD, now though, with prices on so many retailers so low (imo), I've just lost my focus and understanding. I'd almost say that a bet on JWN (Nordstrom - hovering near lows) has an equal - and maybe better - chance to recover to higher levels than does the conglomerate LTD. Although some of these retailers are high-end carriage-trade purveyors, JWN continues to have some terrific customer loyalty and is likely to be a survivor and thriver (maybe). Perhaps SAKS too, (but their stores I've visited look devoid of customers) might recover from its multiyear lows at some point. I was once willing to bet on SKS, but not now. In addition to JWN, I've got GOT on my watch list. GOT looks risky to me, yet some savvy business people have been taking large positions at higher prices. (I can't find the news item to cite.) fwiw, Paul Senior

To: Brendan W who wrote (13149)	10/19/2001 12:01:07 PM
From: Brendan W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78702

Host Marriot. I believe somebody posted interest in HMT and HPT (hotel REITs) recently. I am also watching, but have not yet bought. I read the recent press release and listened to the HMT call of 10/18/2001 and was surprised to see the characterization of them in the news pages available on the web. The company expects to: o suspend the December dividend o resume dividends later at substantially lower levels o be in violation of loan covenants of their credit facility by January I didn't read any of this... I just got it from their webcast (still available from their website). I deduce from a statement from one of the research analysts that the company thinks the replacement value of their assets approaches $11 per share. Current price is $6.50.