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To: Logain Ablar who wrote (2485)10/2/2001 11:00:11 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2850
 
Hi Tim, cool beans moving the NAT and Natural Gas
discussions over here.

thanks for all of your thoughts on NAT , VLCCF and the other
tanker stocks. You've got an excellent handle on them.

I was looking at the 3 year Natural Gas Futures strip
tonight. The whole strip is higher than Nov which is the
nearby month. The spring and summer contracts in 2002
are around 2.80, and all of the 2003 and 2004 contracts
are over 3.00. So the market is pricing in higher prices
going forward.

So the current lower NG prices are very likely a combination
of decreased demand due to the global slowdown. (especailly
the US slowdown) the Gas rig count is in the process of
coming down, and The market is also looking at a pick up
in NG power plant construction, as well as a rebound in
electricity demand when the economy turns.

John

------------

(the closing prices of each contract month has an s by it, I have put 3 months in bold. So the closing price for May of 2003 today was 3.122.)

interactive.wsj.com

Contr. Date Last Trade* Open High/
Ask Low/
Bid Last/
Settle Chg. Vol. Open
Interest
RNGX01 Nov '01 10/02 15:57 2210 2300 2200 2268s 60 16606 59517
RNGZ01 Dec '01 10/02 15:31 2610 2690 2600 2660s 58 6684 39755
RNGF02 Jan '02 10/02 14:53 2840 2915 2830 2878s 54 5281 46025
RNGG02 Feb '02 10/02 15:50 2835 2915 2835 2876s 49 2405 28160
RNGH02 Mar '02 10/02 14:29 2815 2865 2805 2837s 40 2412 28813
RNGJ02 Apr '02 10/02 14:29 2740 2780 2740 2754s 19 1067 33890
RNGK02 May '02 10/02 14:29 2775 2810 2775 2782s 14 275 19716
RNGM02 Jun '02 10/02 14:29 2835 2860 2820 2830s 12 1100 14310
RNGN02 Jul '02 10/02 14:29 2865 2910 2865 2875s 7 67 13175
RNGQ02 Aug '02 10/02 14:29 2915 2950 2900 2912s 6 160 23804
RNGU02 Sep '02 10/02 14:29 2900 2950 2900 2911s 5 157 17993
RNGV02 Oct '02 10/02 14:29 2950 2970 2936 2936s 5 86 25288
RNGX02 Nov '02 10/02 14:29 3150 3170 3126 3126s 5 417 12020
RNGZ02 Dec '02 10/02 14:29 3360 3380 3336 3336s 5 86 14509
RNGF03 Jan '03 10/02 14:29 3485 3510 3456 3456s 5 1967 9245
RNGG03 Feb '03 10/02 14:29 3405 3410 3361 3361s 5 177 10165
RNGH03 Mar '03 10/02 14:29 3270 3295 3247 3247s 5 876 7725
RNGJ03 Apr '03 10/02 14:29 3160 3160 3109 3109s 5 910 8490
RNGK03 May '03 10/02 14:29 3170 3170 3122 3122s 5 15 3364
RNGM03 Jun '03 10/02 14:29 3210 3210 3153 3153s 5 25 5561
RNGN03 Jul '03 10/02 14:29 3180 3220 3179 3179s 5 26 6732
RNGQ03 Aug '03 10/02 14:29 3200 3260 3200 3201s 5 222 8291
RNGU03 Sep '03 10/02 14:29 3240 3240 3206 3206s 5 1 2453
RNGV03 Oct '03 10/02 14:29 3230b 3216s 5 18 7553
RNGX03 Nov '03 10/02 14:29 3400b 3386s 5 167 3956
RNGZ03 Dec '03 10/02 14:29 3570b 3557s 5 32 7604
RNGF04 Jan '04 10/02 14:29 3616s 5 8 3095
RNGG04 Feb '04 10/02 14:29 3502s 5 8 5319
RNGH04 Mar '04 10/02 14:29 3395 3395 3370 3370s 5 8 1271
RNGJ04 Apr '04 10/02 14:29 3225 3225 3200 3200s 5 4 1695
RNGK04 May '04 10/02 14:29 3245 3245 3195 3195s 0 4 1176
RNGM04 Jun '04 10/02 14:29 3237b 3227s 0 14 196
RNGN04 Jul '04 10/02 14:29 3285 3304 3274 3274s 0 4 531
RNGQ04 Aug '04 10/02 14:29 3317 3317 3306 3306s 0 224 3762
RNGU04 Sep '04 10/02 14:29 3327 3327 3317 3317s 0 4 43
RNGV04 Oct '04 10/02 14:29 3337b 3327s 0 4 4