STRATFOR Intelligence Briefing:
Hot Spots in the War on Terror
2300 GMT, 011001
stratfor.com
The United States is building up forces in the Middle East and South Asia in preparation for a possible attack on Afghanistan, where terror suspect Osama bin Laden is in hiding. With Washington focusing its military efforts on a single target, bin Laden and his allies will likely seek ways to diffuse the concentration of forces near Afghanistan by exploiting existing tensions and unrest in other nations around the globe.
Pakistan, Egypt and Indonesia are among the top targets for these attacks. Not only are these nations already strained by internal Islamic and political unrest, they are also strategically vital to U.S. operations. Should one or more of these three countries fall into widespread internal chaos or undergo a forced regime change, U.S. forces would have little choice but to respond or face a serious challenge to supply lines and operations in the Arabian Sea.
Aside from these primary targets, there are several other places around the world where, directly or indirectly, bin Laden and his allies could ignite brushfires that would distract Washington or its coalition partners. Although trouble in these other states would be unlikely to draw U.S. forces, attacks on U.S. citizens and assets, both civilian and military, could increase domestic pressure on the U.S. government.
As U.S. forces continue to ramp up for a major military strike, follow-on terrorist strikes in the United States, Canada and Western Europe, as well as flare-ups in hotspots around the world, could tax the coalition's ability to remain focused on a single, discreet target. The following is a list of potential hotspots where, directly or indirectly, bin Laden and his allies could fan the flames of existing tensions:
PAKISTAN: Pakistan is the only country still formally recognizing the Taliban regime as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, its neighbor to the north. Pakistan's geographical position and its relations with both the Taliban and Washington make it vital for any U.S. operation against Afghanistan. Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has struggled against militant and extremist Islamic factions within the country, many of which were spawned out of the same schools as the Taliban. Destabilizing the already delicate balance in Pakistan would put all U.S. operational plans at risk and could lead to another confrontation with neighboring India. Furthermore, a victory by pro-bin Laden forces in Pakistan would also place Pakistan's nuclear weapons in al-Qa'ida's hands, leaving Washington little choice but to intervene to avoid such an outcome.
Musharraf's Ban May Split Pakistan
A Weakened Pakistan Seeks Stability
Pakistan Begins Clampdown on Fundamentalists
EGYPT: Egypt is a key Arab state as it is located astride the Suez Canal, the passageway between the Mediterranean Sea and the Arabian Sea that is vital for U.S. naval movements. Egyptian extremist and militant organizations include the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Egyptian al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya. These groups, although heavily suppressed by the government of President Hosni Mubarak, still seek to overthrow the regime. An assassination attempt on the president, or a major uprising triggered off of potential U.S. strikes on Afghanistan, could seriously disrupt the government, threaten U.S. supply lines and trigger a military response from neighboring Israel.
Egypt: A Precarious Ally
Mubarak's Strategy Puts Government, Economy at Risk
Waiting on Cairo
INDONESIA: Indonesia boasts the world's largest Islamic population and lies along the Strait of Malacca, a key shipping and naval route between the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. The country is on its fourth president in as many years and is wracked with social unrest ranging from religious conflicts, to tribal and ethnic clashes, to full-out separatist movements. Islamic groups such as the Laskar Jihad and the Muslim Youth Movement are tools through which crises could be fomented. Multiple violent demonstrations across the archipelago could strain already thin security forces beyond their capabilities. Considering Indonesia's strategic location, and the ties between Islamic groups there and in nearby Malaysia and the Philippines, a serious crisis would require the intervention of the United States and its regional allies.
Divided Security Forces Duel in Indonesia
Southeast Asia: Local Insurgencies Go Global
The Geopolitics of Disintegration: Indonesia and the World
PHILIPPINES: Located along the South China Sea and just north of Indonesia, the Philippines was once a strategic base for the U.S. military. Although Washington no longer has a permanent military presence in the Philippines, Manila has offered use of its airbases for supply and operations in the fight against terrorism. Yet Manila faces its own problems with Islamic groups, from the larger Moro Islamic Liberation Front to the smaller Abu Sayyaf. A bombing campaign in Manila or renewed kidnappings of foreigners by the Abu Sayyaf may not be enough to draw U.S. forces, but the ties between local extremists and bin Laden's al-Qa'ida could present a considerable distraction for U.S. strategic planners.
Thorny Obstacles to Philippines Cease-Fire
Philippines: As Rebel Group Splinters, Actions Will Be Less Predictable
Philippine Terrorists Take Their Struggle to the International Arena
MALAYSIA: Malaysia lies across the Strait of Malacca from Indonesia. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has warned for several months about a growing regional threat from Islamic extremists, claiming there is a plot to overthrow the governments in Kuala Lumpur, Manila and Jakarta. The Malaysian government alleges that the Kumpulan Militan Malaysia, a small militant Islamic group, has carried out violence and kidnappings in Malaysia and is linked to bombings in Indonesia. Although it would take a major shift in scope and tactics of Islamic militants in Malaysia to draw U.S. attention, trouble near Singapore or along the strait would require careful attention by U.S. and coalition militaries.
Malaysia: Warning of Extremist Threat
Malaysia: Showing Signs of Rising Islamic Militancy
After the Election: Mahathir and Muslim Fundamentalism
BANGLADESH: Bangladesh was initially considered as a possible location for U.S. air and naval bases for the current operations near Afghanistan. Bangladesh's location on the Bay of Bengal, and its proximity to India, makes it a potential for unrest. Widespread violence occurred ahead of the Oct. 1 elections in Dhaka, with some clashes caused by Islamic fundamentalist political wings. A flare-up in cross-border insurgent movements would draw neighboring India's concern. As Washington focuses on Afghanistan, it wants to avoid other conflicts involving coalition partners, particularly India.
Bangladesh: Growing Influence of Muslim Fundamentalists
Fences: India's New Insurance Policy Against Bangladesh
Bangladesh Movement Highlights New Pan-Islamic Identity
INDIA: India faces several insurgencies and militant groups, most notably in Kashmir, where Islamic forces are fighting for independence or annexation by Pakistan. Accelerating violence in Kashmir could strain U.S.-India relations. Washington needs to keep close ties with Pakistan for any operations against Afghanistan and may take a more moderate line toward Islamabad at this time. If India responds to an increase in fighting in Kashmir with major military moves, Pakistan would respond in kind, leaving Washington without a reliable ally while at the same time facing the risk of a new war in South Asia.
India-Pakistan Summit: Can a Kashmir Solution be Found?
Kashmir: The Bane of India and Pakistan
Kashmir: Local Government Gets Involved
CENTRAL ASIA (KYRGYZSTAN, TAJIKISTAN, UZBEKISTAN): The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is the primary cause of unrest in all of these states. But with winter approaching, many of its forces may have already retreated back into Afghanistan. Remaining forces could stir trouble in the Ferghana Valley, where local militaries would be forced to respond. If the group causes trouble in these former Soviet states, it could raise concerns about the potential basing of U.S. assets in Central Asia.
Uzbekistan: A War Waiting to Happen
Central Asian Militants Switch to Offense
Fundamentalist Threat Rising in Central Asia
SOUTH AFRICA: South Africa is a possible target for unrest chiefly because it would be so unexpected. The group People Against Gangsterism and Drugs (PAGAD), active in Cape Town, reportedly has links with other Islamic radical groups and at one point may have received help from Libyan President Muammar Gadhafi. Moreover, Cape Town is full of Americans and Brits, is easily accessible and is an important port and route for shipping traffic. There is also a lot of drug trafficking between the South Africans and the Nigerians although PAGAD has fought a long-running war with the drug traffickers. PAGAD has also suffered a massive crackdown from the South African police with the help of the FBI.
South Africa: Cracking Down on Muslim Groups
KENYA: Kenya is one of the sites of the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Africa. The economic situation is dire, and more and more groups are heading to Nairobi for jobs. The Muslim population is concentrated largely on the coastal areas and in the port city of Mombasa, where they continue to enjoy relative economic health and political independence. But there are radical groups in both Mombasa and Nairobi opposed to both the Kenyan government and more moderate Muslim leaders. Unrest is already expected due to economic decline and rising unemployment, and bin Laden's past access would seemingly make the situation prime for his purposes. But following the U.S. embassy bombing, Kenyan law enforcement has increased links with Interpol, and FBI and U.S. assets there are more heavily guarded.
Kenya's Unusual Religious Clash
African Drug Trade Escalates
TANZANIA: As the other site of the U.S. embassy bombings in 1998, Tanzania is another likely target for bin Laden or other Islamic militants to stir unrest. The constant travel by Muslims between Zanzibar, Mombasa and Pakistan leaves the nation wide open to outside influence. In Tanzania the Zanzibari Muslims have plenty of reason to stir up trouble since the mainland government has effectively marginalized them. Last year there were several terrorist attacks tied to Muslims from the islands against the government.
Terrorism Comes Home to Tanzania
NIGERIA: Nigeria, a key oil-producing state, is another possible target for bin Laden and others to exploit existing unrest. There are ongoing battles between Christians and Muslims, especially in the north and the middle belt where hundreds die regularly. Oil platforms and pipelines are frequently sabotaged and occupied, with Western employees held hostage. Although they are generally painted as religious conflicts, the deeper seeds of tension in Nigeria are grounded in ethnic competition. There are more than 200 ethnic groups in Nigeria all vying for resources and power. The predominately Muslim north still exerts significant influence over both the government and the military, even though President Olusegun Obasanjo is a Yoruba and a Christian. A minor group could easily exploit the situation to revive the routine Christian-Muslim fights, but Nigeria can sustain a high level of chaos.
Nigeria's Biafra Independence Movement Reemerges
Nigeria's Politics of Religion
States in Northern Nigeria Challenge President
SUDAN: Sudan was one of the targets of U.S. retaliatory strikes after the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies. The regime once welcomed bin Laden but has been moving closer to the United States recently. Although there are few U.S. assets there, the warming in relations between Sudan and the United States could be undercut.
U.S.-Sudan: Approaching Rapprochement?
Sudan Suggests Egyptian Complicity in Chemical Plant Attack
Pipeline Explosion May Signal Opposition's Impatience
MOROCCO: There is a possibility that U.S. schools and areas that expatriates frequent could be targeted by fundamentalists. But although there are some contacts between local fundamentalists and larger networks abroad, a significant challenge to the regime is unlikely. Any terrorist activities would be dealt with primarily by the country's Interior Ministry, as well as the FBI.
Crackdown May Backfire on Morocco
Will War Return to the Western Sahara?
ALBANIA: Although a more moderate government is currently in power, factions in Albania were key sponsors of the Kosovo Liberation Army. Albania remains critical to U.S. and European operations in Kosovo and the surrounding areas. Any major destabilization there could refuel the conflict in Kosovo while heightening unrest in Macedonia.
Albanian Instability Threatens NATO's Kosovo Mission
Albania Falls Apart, Again
Albania Drawn into Two Balkan Conflicts
SOUTH AMERICA (ARGENTINA, BOLIVIA, BRAZIL, PARAGUAY): Although South America is not known for Islamic terrorism, there are significant Muslim populations in several nations. There are also growing signs that there may be links between militants in Central Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe and drug traffickers in South America. The psychological effect of Islamic terrorism striking in the U.S. backyard could be immense in Washington.
Search Extends to Latin America
GEORGIA: An ongoing separatist movement in the northwest enclave of Abkhazia presents another potential hot spot. Chechen fighters took part in the Abkhaz separatist struggle, and they still have contacts in the region. Georgia itself is important for the United States and NATO because it is located between Russia and Turkey, and another flare-up in the secessionist struggle could threaten the newfound cooperation between Washington and Moscow.
Russia Still Dragging Its Feet on Withdrawal from Abkhazia
Russia Makes Case for Attack in Georgia
Abductions of U.N. Peacekeepers Likely to Escalate
RUSSIA: Russia itself could be a target of diffusion attacks by bin Laden or other organizations. Moscow is still battling militants in Chechnya, and nearby Dagestan also presents a similar security challenge to the government. A flare-up in both areas would not only draw Russia's attention but also could weaken U.S. relations with Moscow, as Washington has long been critical of Russia's tactics in Chechnya.
Hijacking Reveals Chechen Rebels' Determination
Chechen Rebels Turning to Terrorism
Russia: Chechen War Creeping Across the Caucasus
MACEDONIA: NATO brokered a fragile peace in August after seven months of fighting between Macedonian government forces and ethnic Albanian insurgents led by the National Liberation Army (NLA). Radical elements linked or sympathetic to bin Laden could take advantage of a breakdown in the peace process by infiltrating the NLA and supporting an expansion of the conflict. This could force NATO to increase its presence in the Balkans.
Macedonia Struggles With Peace Deal
NATO's Entry into Macedonia Will Mean Victory for Militants
Macedonia Accuses NATO of Siding With Militants |
