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To: fedhead who wrote (132341)	10/2/2001 9:31:28 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

>> 1. Easy monetary policy << 8 easings (9 after today) and no bottom in sight. >> 2. Stimulative fiscal policy << several months of this and no bottom in sight. >> 3. Technical indicators all pointing to an extremely oversold market << oversold often becomes even more oversold and in itself is not a good reason to bet on some huge rally. in fact we just relieved some of the oversold conditions this past week. >> 4. Uniformly bearish consensus. << perhaps emough for a temporary bounce, but sentiment is nowhere where it needs to be for a lasting bottom.

To: fedhead who wrote (132341)	10/2/2001 2:30:30 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>Uniformly bearish consensus<< this just isn't true. in my universe, everyone is saying how stocks will "come back." i advised one guy to 1. open up his 401k and 2. stay in mm funds for a while. he did the former but not the latter. he's very confident he did the right the right thing as are his coworkers who did it with him. i still recall our hr director going over the 401k plan in 9/00 and saying "of course, you'll probably want to invest in stocks b/c they always go up" as i was checking bond funds (i have a ton of other dough in mm funds already)...

To: fedhead who wrote (132341)	10/3/2001 1:38:13 AM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

"Looks to me these are ingredients for a sharp rally." I think ti would be foolish to sharply disagree with you -- this is cerntainly possible at this stage -- it is a matter of the odds. I am concerned about the snowballing of this downturn in the short-term and the lack of steps available to do much about it -- but as I said -- you make some good points and this could be a time that people jump back in. My own thinking is that we see one more leg down -- there is crap out there heading for the fan. We can say "it is priced in", but that depends on how big the crap turns out to be and what effect it has on people -- good luck...