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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JoanP who wrote (895)	10/2/2001 10:05:21 PM
From: bill	Respond to of 306849

The article doesn't take into account something that has been happening re oil. It's not on most people's radar screens at the moment. It is the possibility of a price war between the Russians and OPEC. The Russians are desperate for hard currency and are increasing their oil exports at a rate that is starting to counterbalance OPEC. OPEC has stated they're prepared to engage in a price war. If that happens,look for oil at 11.00 a barrel. It won't last, of course, but it could have a dramatic impact on oil prices and those industries/companies that are most affected by oil prices. There is no love lost between the Russians and the Arabs. It's not just market share that will drive them. Throw into the pot that Bush is going tohave to accept Putin's statement that you can't have someone killing Russians and call them freedom fighters while you call people who kill Americans terrorists. Sounds like a rock and a hard place--trying to get cooperation from both these groups. Nobody knows the outcome re oil.(or anything else)Will conflict result in reduced exports (blown up pipelines, etc) or a flood of cheap oil?

To: JoanP who wrote (895)	10/3/2001 6:27:47 AM
From: Tom Gordon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Joan, Haan's overview on oil, a stark reality. Economies don't shrink as rapid as those oil prices, US gov't intervention indeed. With regards to those savings rates relative to inflation,that interest rate cut yesterday just put the savings at negative growth. Greeney is definitely in uncharted waters with these plummeting savings rates, when rates fall this fast an adverse reaction to the contrary most assuredly rears it's ugly face such as inflation. Bush is not relishing the fact of going to war with the Islamic's, Blair tried to flex his muscle yesterday,seemed to strenghten their resolve to fight, albeit there are murmurings of defection within the Taliban. He'll hold of the war as long as he can,so these markets can get a firm footing again, won't happen with people saving paying off huge debt. "Sorta like pi$$in in the wind singin God save the King". Gold is a must for these uncertain of times,the Fed is too busy manipulating oil to be butressing the price of gold from skyrocketing. Regards,Tom.