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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Krupa who wrote (7755)	10/2/2001 2:23:22 PM
From: Jim Merz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14101

I've been away from this thread awhile. Still holding and notwithstanding this strange new world we live in, I can't help wondering what kind of news will get this issue to move up and stay up...?!?!?

To: Joe Krupa who wrote (7755)	10/3/2001 6:16:45 PM
From: Cal Gary	Respond to of 14101

Hi Joe, I don't think Dimethaid would have chosen to go this route alone. Whether alone or with a partner, I don't think DMX had a choice but to go this route. It is the right decision. I hope they prioritize on getting distribution to these 4 countries quick once official marketing authorization is in hand. Then focus on getting Germany on side for the next marketing green light. In that order. A while back I did my own off the cuff analysis on DMX getting 13 countries on side in 90 days (plus the additional 56 days for the docket goof up). This analysis was actually a last second deletion from our P.M. In fact, 20/20 I used one wrong assumption. Initially, I used the following assumptions: coin toss odds, no dependencies between countries, no order which countries replied, there were only two outcomes - a yes or no. 1 0.5 2 0.25 3 0.125 4 0.0625 5 0.03125 6 0.015625 7 0.0078125 8 0.00390625 9 0.001953125 10 0.000976563 11 0.000488281 12 0.000244141 13 0.00012207 So, there was a 1 in 8192 chance in getting all countries to decide Yes. Better odds than a lottery (government run anyways). So if we got all 13, then the payoff would have been great! Like winning the lottery. I was looking for 6 or 7 on side countries . So I'm a bit disappointed. Getting 10 on side countries would be 1 in 1024 chances. Like I said, hind sight my assumption should have changed. There are 3 outcomes. 1 Yes - on side 2 No - rejection of the British report 3 Take my time - rules, what rules? Therefore: 0.3 0.09 0.027 0.0081 0.00243 0.000729 0.0002187 0.00006561 0.000019683 0.0000059049 0.00000177147 0.000000531441 0.0000001594323 Thus, getting all 13 countries on side in 90 days is like 1 in 6,272,254 !! Major lottery and probably a major stock price increase. Getting 10 countries is 1 in 169,351 Getting 4 countries is 1 in 123 (not 1 in 16 initially) Well, another look at it anyways. Chalk up another filler moment.